首度表态可能「卖币」，「比特币概念股龙头」MSTR盘中一度暴跌12%

“Bitcoin concept stock leader” MSTR once again stands at the forefront of attention. However, this time it’s not due to increased holdings, but rather the company’s first hint of possible Bitcoin sales. On December 1st, MicroStrategy announced that it had raised $144 million through stock sales, which was immediately interpreted by the market as a signal that the company intends to sell some of its Bitcoin assets in extreme situations. Upon hearing this news, MSTR’s stock price plummeted by 12% during trading hours, causing investors to become extremely nervous. As the global company with the largest holding of Bitcoin, any hint of potential Bitcoin sales could cause significant fluctuations in the market. This fundraising effort seems more like a “survival insurance” measure taken during periods of high volatility.

This move is aimed at coping with the severe fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market and ensuring that the company can continue to pay its dividends and interest obligations. Previously, the price of Bitcoin dropped from over $126,000 at the beginning of October to around $85,000 within just over a month.

Company executives stated that if the metric used to measure the relationship between corporate value and Bitcoin holdings, “mNAV,” falls below 1, and the company cannot raise funds through other means, then it will sell some of its Bitcoin assets to replenish its dollar reserves. This decision is seen as a major turning point in the company’s strategy, breaking with the long-held philosophy of Michael Saylor, who advocates for “always buying and holding”.

Due to the company’s first indication of potential Bitcoin sales, its stock price plummeted by 12.2% during trading on Monday, ending the day down by 3.3%. Investors’ selling behavior reflects their deep concerns about the sustainability of the company’s business model during the “Bitcoin winter”.

Dollar reserves: A safeguard against the “Bitcoin winter”

In the face of challenges in the crypto market, MicroStrategy is taking measures to strengthen its financial position. According to reports from the Financial Times and other media outlets, this $1.44 billion reserve is funded by proceeds from the company’s stock sales. The company’s goal is to maintain sufficient dollar reserves to cover dividends for at least 12 months, with the intention of expanding this capacity to cover 24 months or more.

It is reported that this funding was obtained through the issuance of 8.2 million shares last week, which should be sufficient to cover all of the company’s interest expenses for the next 21 months. Currently, MicroStrategy spends approximately $800 million annually on interest and preferred stock dividends. This move aims to ensure that the company does not have to sell Bitcoin in the short term, even if the capital market loses interest in its stocks and bonds.

Phong Le, the CEO of MicroStrategy, stated in his podcast “What Bitcoin Did” that this measure is aimed at preparing for the “Bitcoin winter”. Meanwhile, founder Michael Saylor said that this reserve will allow the company to better navigate short-term market fluctuations.

Has the myth of “never selling out” been shattered?

The most significant change in this strategic adjustment is that MicroStrategy has openly acknowledged the possibility of selling Bitcoin. This potential sale is tied to the company’s proprietary “mNAV” metric, which compares the company’s enterprise value (market value plus debt minus cash) with the value of its cryptocurrency assets.

CEO Phong Le clearly stated, “I hope that our mNAV will remain above 1. But if we really reach that point and have no other financing options, then we will sell off the Bitcoin we hold.” This statement is significant. For a long time, Michael Saylor has been known as a staunch advocate of Bitcoin. He transformed MicroStrategy from a small software company into the world’s largest holder of Bitcoin. His strategy was to continuously buy and hold Bitcoin over the long term. Currently, MicroStrategy owns approximately 650,000 Bitcoins, worth about $56 billion, which accounts for 3.1% of the total global supply of Bitcoin. The company’s value is estimated at around $67 billion. If mNAV drops below 1, it means that the company’s market valuation (after deducting debts) is lower than the value of the Bitcoin it holds. This would seriously undermine the foundation of its business model. The imminent debt pressure

is a major challenge for MicroStrategy. The company funds its purchases of Bitcoin by issuing stocks, convertible bonds, and preferred shares. Currently, it owes $8.2 billion in convertible bonds. If the company’s stock price continues to decline, the holders of these bonds will demand repayment in cash, rather than conversion into stocks. This would put tremendous cash flow pressure on the company. When Standard & Poor’s gave MicroStrategy a “B-” rating on October 27th, they specifically noted the “liquidity risk” associated with its convertible bonds.

S&P warned that there is a risk that, when the price of Bitcoin faces significant pressure, the company’s convertible bonds will mature at the same time. This could lead to the company selling off its Bitcoin assets during periods of low prices, or undergoing debt restructuring that might be considered a default by us.

The pressure is already present. It is reported that bondholders worth $1.1 billion have the right to demand repayment of the principal on September 15, 2027. Additionally, more than $5.6 billion in “out-of-parity” convertible bonds may need to be redeemed in cash by 2028, posing a threat to the company’s long-term financial stability.

Traders are analyzing whether this is a sign of caution or a precursor to a sell-off.

Although MicroStrategy’s CEO emphasized that Bitcoin would only be sold under extreme circumstances, traders have clearly started to “overinterpret” these statements in a volatile market environment.

While the company insists that its long-term strategy remains unchanged, traders are concerned that these comments could create opportunities for a sell-off. These concerns have led to an increase in risk-averse sentiment in the market.

Regarding CEO Phong Le’s statement that “it is mathematically reasonable to sell Bitcoin when the stock price is lower than the value of the underlying assets and financing options are limited,” the market reaction has been mixed:

Pessimists interpreted these comments as a signal that the world’s largest corporate holder might be planning to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings. One user on social media platform X commented sarcastically, “Can’t wait to see them selling at rock bottom.” Another commenter said, “It sounds like typical corporate PR tactics. But they really shouldn’t sell at the wrong time.” Rationalists believe this is inevitable. Some also argue that CEO Phong Le simply acknowledges the constraints faced by any publicly traded company when its market value falls below its asset value. An investor noted, “The key isn’t whether they might sell, but how committed they are to sticking to that decision until it becomes a reality.” To reassure the market, MicroStrategy claimed on X that even if Bitcoin prices dropped to around $74,000 per unit, their assets would still cover their outstanding convertible debts several times over. They even stated that even if prices fell to $25,000, their asset coverage would still exceed their liabilities. Founder Michael Saylor also continued to show confidence, announcing on Monday that the company had purchased 130 BTC for $11.7 million. Market reactions and performance warnings

MicroStrategy的最新动向及其引发的策略转变担忧，迅速在市场引发负面反应。周一，其股价盘中最低触及156美元，尽管收盘时有所回升，但仍较7月中旬的52周高点下跌了64%。今年以来，该股已累计下跌近41%。与此同时，比特币价格也未能幸免，下跌超4%至约86370美元。

除了公司自身的策略调整，宏观市场的剧烈波动也成为了压垮股价的「最后一根稻草」。周一市场呈现出明显的避险基调，一方面源于日本央行鹰派立场引发的日元融资挤压，另一方面则是加密货币领域自身的动荡。

相关图表数据显示了当前市场的极端情绪：

● 比特币购买力缩水：在一年前，一枚比特币可以购买3500盎司白银;而如今，同一单位的比特币仅能购买1450盎司白银，创下自2023年10月以来的最低点。这一比率的大跌直观地反映了加密资产相对于传统避险资产(如白银)的疲软。

● 期权市场的狙击：Data from SpotGamma indicates that MicroStrategy (MSTR) is facing the typical situation of “overleveraged targets being attacked”. A large number of put options have gathered below $170. This negative Gamma effect means that if the price of Bitcoin continues to fall, market makers’ hedging actions could accelerate the decline of MSTR, Coinbase, and other crypto-related stocks, potentially dragging down major stock indexes.

● Macroeconomic challenges: With the increasing expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, carry trades are under pressure to be liquidated. As one of the most speculative asset classes, cryptocurrencies are particularly affected. Bitcoin once found support around $84,000 per unit, but experienced its worst daily performance since March 3rd. Ethereum even dropped below the $3,000 mark.

In addition to the pressure on stock prices, companies’ earnings forecasts also show negative signs. MicroStrategy expects that if Bitcoin prices remain between $85,000 and $110,000 by the end of this year, the company’s annual earnings could range from a net loss of $5.5 billion to a net profit of $6.3 billion. This contradicts the forecast made in the company’s financial reports on October 30th, which predicted a net profit of $24 billion by 2025.