比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向

Since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the “indicator” of the market has been changing quietly. The price of Bitcoin is no longer determined primarily by traditional metrics such as on-chain activity and miner behavior. Instead, it is now completely influenced by off-chain factors from Wall Street. Five key signals—institutional purchases/sales, ETF fund inflows and outflows, derivatives leverage structures, stablecoin issuance rates, and US dollar liquidity—are collectively determining the direction of this cycle. In other words, Bitcoin is becoming more like a global macro asset, with its price movements being driven more by capital flows and leverage levels, rather than emotional fluctuations among on-chain participants. The key to this cycle lies in determining when these off-chain forces will come together again.

First, ETF fund flows are the core driver of growth.

Data from Gemini and Glassnode shows that the total holdings of spot ETFs have reached over 515,000 Bitcoins, which is 2.4 times the amount of Bitcoins issued by miners during the same period. Research has shown that ETF fund inflows provide a much better explanation for price movements compared to traditional crypto indicators.

In the first quarter of 2024, a net inflow of $12.1 billion directly pushed Bitcoin’s price to record highs. In November 2025, there was a net redemption of $3.7 billion, the largest monthly outflow since the ETFs were introduced. This led to a drop in prices from $12,600 per coin to around $8,000 per coin. Now, a single-day outflow of $500 million from IBIT has the same impact as actions taken by large on-chain players.

Second, perpetual financing and futures spreads reveal the cycle of leverage.

Currently, the annual financing rate remains stable at 8%-12%. A peak financing rate exceeding 20% often indicates local peaks in prices, while severely negative financing rates correspond to troughs in the cycle.

In November 2025, during the period when ETF funds turned negative, futures outstanding contracts decreased, and the financing rate remained low. This coincided with a decline in currency prices. When ETF inflows surge while financing levels are low, it indicates sustained demand. However, if the financing rate skyrockets but ETF funds remain stagnant, it suggests a short-term bubble caused by leveraged short-selling behavior.

Thirdly, stablecoin liquidity is the cornerstone of the primary market.

In 2024, the supply of stablecoins increased by 59%, with transactions reaching $27.6 trillion. Changes in stablecoin supply often precede fluctuations in currency prices.

When ETF funds and stablecoin supply both show positive values, bull market momentum is strongest. If both indicators turn negative simultaneously, it will accelerate the speed and magnitude of declines. ETFs serve as an entry point for institutions, while stablecoins determine the marginal capital available to primary traders.

Fourthly, changes in the structure of holders reshapes market resilience.

Long-term holders’ positions reached record highs, reducing the amount of circulating supply. However, short-term “hot capital” accounted for 38% of total capital, making the market more sensitive to capital flows. In November 2025, when prices fell below key cost levels, this was directly related to long-term holders shifting their holdings to ETFs and exchanges, thereby weakening support for the market.

Fifthly, macro-level liquidity affects markets through ETFs.

Bitcoin has a beta coefficient of 5-9 times that of global liquidity changes (gold has a beta of 2-3 times, stocks have a beta of 1). Therefore, Bitcoin has become a high-beta asset. Changes in Federal Reserve policies and real yields can be quickly transmitted to the spot and derivatives markets through ETF fund flows.

The sell-off in autumn 2025 was a result of liquidity tightening and the disappointment of interest rate cuts, leading to a chain reaction involving outflows of ETF funds.

These five factors work together like gears in a mechanism: ETFs serve as the foundation for institutional investment; the financing rate affects the strength of market movements; stablecoins can supplement traditional funds; the structure of holders determines a company’s ability to withstand risks; and macro-level liquidity influences capital costs. When all these factors align, currency prices are likely to rise. However, if there are discrepancies among them, it is very likely that prices will fall.