The Bitcoin market trend is highly consistent with the market conditions in 2022; the correlation co

Although the market once expected Bitcoin to experience an “end-of-year rally” in December, reality has been rather calm. As of now, Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 36% from its October high, and its trend is strikingly similar to the “weak rebound followed by continuous decline” pattern seen at the end of 2022. Macroeconomic uncertainties, cautious sentiment among investors, and the aftermath of margin liquidations have made this once-promising end-of-year cycle seem weak. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be struggling in a consolidation zone after a correction at higher levels. While the price has not collapsed, there seems to be no clear path for a rapid turnaround. This deviation from expectations forces the market to reconsider one question: has Bitcoin already entered a new period of volatility before liquidity fully recovers?

Bitcoin’s performance resembles that of the bear market in 2022. Analysts say that the price trend in 2025 is almost identical to previous troughs in the market.

Although it was expected that prices would accelerate in December, the cryptocurrency still fell by about 36% from its historical high as the year came to an end.

Network economist Timothy Peterson has consistently emphasized that the current trend closely follows those of 2022. “Bitcoin in the second half of 2025 will be similar to Bitcoin in the second half of 2022,” he wrote in a recent article published on X.

The correlation between Bitcoin prices in 2025 and 2022 has reached an unprecedented level.

Peterson’s analysis shows that the daily correlation between the markets in 2025 and 2022 is around 80%. Monthly correlations are even higher, reaching an astonishing 98%.

His research charts show that if this trend continues, Bitcoin may not see a significant rebound until the first quarter of 2026.

These findings concern investors who hoped for a rebound in the market before the holidays.

Peterson recently summarized the performance in November in a straightforward and concise manner.

“It’s a terrible situation,” he wrote, adding that “this month’s price movements ranked among the worst in terms of daily price changes since 2015.”

Historical patterns suggest that there will be more losses in December.

Bitcoin’s negative performance in November is significant from a historical perspective.

Data shows that when cryptocurrencies experience a “drop” in November, they tend to fall further in December, although the decline usually decreases over time.

With only a few weeks left until the end of the year, traders are debating whether the optimistic sentiment driven by macroeconomic factors can lead to a “Christmas rally” at the end of the year, or whether the market will continue to suffer from the long-term downturns seen in 2022.

Changes in the macro environment are boosting the stock market.

Although the cryptocurrency market has been challenging this month, broader financial markets have shown signs of recovery.

According to the Cobis Communications report, data shows that US equity funds have flowed into the market by $900 billion since November 2024. In just the past five months alone, $450 billion have been invested in these funds.

The publication states, “In other words, the amount of capital inflows into stocks is greater than the total inflows into all other asset classes combined.”

The inflows into stocks remain strong.

In contrast to the relatively weak performance of other asset classes, this surge has led to a divergence between stock market sentiment and crypto market behavior.

The inflows into ETFs suggest that the crypto market may be on the verge of stabilizing.

Despite recent sell-offs, new data indicates that institutional investors’ participation in the crypto market may be recovering.

During the Thanksgiving holiday, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $220 billion in inflows, which is a significant improvement after several weeks of continuous redemptions.

Similar changes were seen in spot Ethereum ETFs, with an increase of $312 million during the same period.

These inflows suggest that institutional investors are preparing for a possible recovery by early 2026.