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BTC Weak jobs data pushes Bitcoin closer to US$85,000
Following a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report, the market is widely expected that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate hikes later this month rather than continue to raise them. Supported by this macro background, bitcoin prices rose rapidly and once hit the US$85,000 mark.
data showed that the United States added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 84,000 to 90,000 range expected by economists; at the same time, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics lowered its July and August employment growth data by a combined 60,000 jobs. This series of data further confirms that the cooling rate of recruitment in the labor market is more significant than previously believed.
The market responded quickly to the news. Bitcoin hit a high of about US$87,086 after the report was released, and then partially retreated. Currently, BTC prices fluctuate around US$85,300, but the macro environment has changed and the overall trend is more conducive to the performance of risky assets.
Expectations for interest rate hikes receded sharply after the release of employment data.
This employment report is critical because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, and traders have been debating whether there will be another rate hike at the October 27 - 28 interest-rate meeting. However, this expectation has changed significantly.
Glassnode data showed that futures markets lowered the probability of a rate hike in October from about 66% early Monday to 22% on Friday afternoon. The jobs report was not the only catalyst-moderate inflation data and the Fed's dovish rhetoric also helped, but it further consolidates the logic of a "pause in interest rates." Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said both interest rate hikes and suspension of interest rates were still under consideration, indicating that the final decision had not yet been settled.
As the interest rate outlook eased, Bitcoin had previously triggered a macro-level rally due to cooling inflation and lower expectations for further tightening.
US$87,000 remains the key resistance to Bitcoin's breakthrough
Although the macro background is improving, Bitcoin still faces technical challenges. BTC has been blocked many times in the US$87,000 to US$87,500 range, making this region the most important short-term resistance level currently. The latest BTC breakthrough pattern analysis also points out that bulls must clear this obstacle before they can target their next clear target at $90,000.
Institutional demand also provides strong support for the market. In the third quarter, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately US$6.34 billion in capital inflows, of which a monthly inflow in September reached US$2.65 billion; during the same period, BTC prices rose nearly 43%. The strong recovery in ETF inflows added additional demand impetus to the rally.
