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BTC On-chain signals reveal market outlook
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that the bear market for Bitcoin ended this summer and the new cycle is in its early stages. Funds flowing into "accumulation addresses" have risen sharply, and the 30-day average has also turned upward. The MVRV (unrealized profit and loss/market cap) indicator is well below the peak of more than 4 to 5 in past cycles, indicating that the current mood of fanaticism and surrender is moderate.
Bitcoin's market structure is shifting from being dominated by retail investors and primitive giant whales to ETFs, institutions and custodians.
The end of the bear market and the beginning of a new chapter
Ki Young Ju shared this view on Bitcoin Magazine's YouTube program BMTV. He pointed out that the market has entered the early stages of the new cycle and expects prices to rise three to five times from lows.
According to his analysis, fresh funds are entering, the selling pressure on the early giant whale is easing, and large futures traders have re-established long positions in the bottom area.
Three major chain signals that support outlook
In the program, Ki Young Ju elaborated on three key chain signals that support his bear-end judgment.
First, although the PnL Index's 365-day moving average is still weak, he pointed out that broader profitability and valuation measures are approaching important turning points.
Secondly, regarding "accumulated addresses", Ki observed a significant increase in funds flowing into this category of addresses, and the 30-day average also turned upward. Together, these readings point to the admission of fresh money, which he sees as a clear sign of new buyers.
随后，Ki分析了MVRV比率。他解释说，该指标在本轮周期中远不如早期周期那样极端，过去的峰值曾达到4至5甚至更高。相比之下，本轮周期该指标保持在较低水平。因此，Ki认为无论是市场狂热还是投降情绪，都已变得更为温和。
此外，他还谈及了大型持有者动态。据Ki观察，原始巨鲸的抛售行为正在减弱，而大型期货交易者在底部附近重建了多头敞口。综合来看，他认为这些发展为比特币熊市终结提供了有力支持。
市场结构向机构化转变
在讨论ETF时，Ki表示资金流入状况有所改善，但终端买家的身份仍然不明确。因此，他强调在当前阶段，托管资金流动的重要性更为凸显。在缺乏清晰买家数据的情况下，他将托管资金流动视为关键参考指标。
除了数据层面，Ki还描述了更广泛的市场结构变化。他表示，比特币正逐渐脱离由散户交易者和原始巨鲸主导的市场模式。取而代之的是，ETF、机构和托管方对市场的影响力日益增强。宏观环境和监管因素也在发挥着越来越重要的作用。
While the early cycle was mainly driven by retail participants and early holders, today, Ki believes a broader group of participants is shaping the market landscape. As a result, his weight on the flow of custody funds has increased compared with the past, and ETF fund inflows and custody balances have also attracted more attention.
Ki centered the discussion around three core questions: Who is buying? Who stopped selling? Is fresh money still pouring in? He believes these are the main points to focus on after the Bitcoin bear market ends.
