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BTC Analysts point out: Bitcoin needs to return to the track of large spot ETF inflows to break through US$87,000.
On Wednesday, analysts said that Bitcoin (BTC) needs to regain large inflows from large spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to effectively break through the key resistance level of US$87,000. On the day, bitcoin prices fell about 4% to below $83,000.
Market Core Points
Bitcoin fell about 4% on Wednesday, falling below the lower edge of its two-week volatile range of $83,000. Although the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately $2.6 billion in inflows in September, total net inflows this week have dropped below $30 million. Oliver Carding of Tesseract Group pointed out that if the situation is to be reversed in the short term, net daily inflows of ETFs need to remain above US$300 million for multiple consecutive trading days.
Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Analysis
Bitcoin prices fell below $83,000 on Wednesday, down about 4% from Tuesday's high of $86,600. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has mainly fluctuated in the range of $83,000 to $87,000. A market research report released Wednesday pointed out that any upward breakthrough would rely on massive capital injections from U.S. spot ETFs and emphasized that it was these funds that drove the September surge.
Data showed that related products attracted approximately US$2.6 billion in funds in September, of which approximately US$2.39 billion was concentrated in the week ended September 25. On September 21, when capital inflows were most active, the net inflow per day was close to US$999 million. However, demand has since cooled significantly. Net inflows last week were just $241 million. Net inflows were $119 million on Tuesday, compared with a net outflow of $90 million on Monday, resulting in a total net inflow of less than $30 million for the week, according to SoValued.
Threshold and Views of Institutional Investors
Oliver Carding, director of marketing at Tesseract Group, said that the latest market trends indicate that ETF buying has not yet recovered enough strength to offset new macro pressures. He set a measure of the return of institutional demand: a net inflow of more than $300 million per day for multiple consecutive trading days, and described this threshold as a personal observation criterion.
Martin Lee, head of content and data insight at DWG Labs, believes that weekly and monthly totals are more useful than daily readings. He pointed out that net inflows this year have reached US$1.2 billion, but 93 of the 190 trading days showed negative inflows, accounting for 48%.
Paul Howard, senior director of Wincent, said investors appear to be taking advantage of the market correction to buy on dips and open positions in sync with institutional investors, and many still target prices at $100,000 or higher.
Price Range Adjustment and Leverage Clearing
随着十年期美国国债收益率突破5.3%，且美元指数在美联储会议纪要公布前走强，比特币的下滑导致了约5.5亿美元的加密资产杠杆头寸被清算，其中大部分为看涨仓位。
印度交易所Giottus的首席执行官Vikram Subburaj指出，如果价格持续跌破82,000至83,000美元区域，将意味着9月份的突破失败，届时80,000至81,500美元的价格区间将重新成为关注焦点。
自7月以来，比特币呈阶梯式上涨，但目前价格仍比一年前的历史高点低约三分之一。第一个震荡区间约为62,000至67,000美元，从7月中旬持续到8月18日，并在三天内实现了21%的涨幅。第二个区间约为76,000至81,500美元，从8月下旬运行至9月中旬，随后在9月19日至21日期间录得6.6%的涨幅，推动价格进入当前的震荡区间。
