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BTC Bitcoin Price Analysis: Daily Chart Trend
Bitcoin's trading price fell back below US$84,000 after failing to continue its momentum towards the US$90,000 region. Although the overall structure remains positive, the recent correction and weakening of proactive futures buying activity suggest that BTC may need to consolidate first before attempting to break through.
The daily chart shows that the structure of BTC has improved significantly in the past few months. Bitcoin has regained its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, both currently around $72,000. The short-term moving average has turned upward, and the two moving averages have shown a convergence trend. This bullish crossover could further consolidate long-term trends.
At the same time, prices have decisively entered the US$75,000 region, which has now become an important demand support area. Holding this area will maintain the integrity of the higher low sequence and maintain the bullish recovery structure. However, a deeper correction to US$70,000, while the larger trend remains relatively positive, losing the region would significantly weaken the upward pattern.
On the upside side, BTC faces a strong supply resistance area near US$88,000. The market has struggled to close daily above this region many times. However, if an effective breakthrough can be achieved, the next major resistance level will be exposed around $96,000.
The kinetic energy is still positive, but it has cooled down. The daily relative strength index (RSI) remains above the neutral level of 50 and there is still room before entering the overbought zone. This suggests that the market has not yet shown signs of running out of momentum that is usually associated with major highs.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart analysis
The 4-hour chart presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin has formed a rising triangle since its September low, and multiple successful tests have strengthened the structure. However, prices are currently falling below that trend line and falling back to around $84,000.
Therefore, the area near $84,000 is crucial. If buyers can regain the area and repair the damaged trend line, the recent decline may be just a brief wash. In this case, BTC may re-test the resistance level of $88,000 and is expected to challenge an effective breakthrough again.
Conversely, if prices continue to fall below US$84,000, the probability of a deeper correction towards the US$75,000 -78,000 region will increase. This area coincides with the previous breakthrough point and should be regarded as the first major support level below the current range.
The 4-hour RSI has also fallen sharply to around 38, indicating that short-term momentum has deteriorated and is close to oversold territory. This may trigger a technical rebound, but the RSI alone cannot confirm a reversal.
Market sentiment analysis
The active bid-sell ratio provides a noteworthy warning signal. This indicator compares aggressive active buying and active selling. A reading above 1 indicates that active buying is dominant, while a reading below 1 indicates that sellers are more aggressive.
The latest reading has dropped below 1 at around 0.994, a significant drop from its September high. This suggests that aggressive buying pressure has subsided as BTC moves closer to the $88,000 resistance zone.
More importantly, since its peak in August, the active bid-buy ratio has shown a downward trend even though Bitcoin prices have remained relatively high. This divergence suggests that the recent rise has not been accompanied by continued aggressive growth in futures demand.
This does not necessarily mean an immediate bearish reversal. However, unless the indicator starts to recover, a clear breakthrough above $88,000 will be unconvincing. If the active bid-sell ratio returns to above 1 and the price breaks through simultaneously, it will provide a stronger confirmation signal for the buyer to regain control of the situation.
