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BTC Arthur Hayes： Bitcoin may benefit from overbuilding AI infrastructure
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CEO of cryptocurrency investment company Maelstrom, said in an interview with CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investment Conference in Singapore that humans are "wasting trillions of dollars" on building AI data centers. He believes that this over-construction will eventually lead to a market crash and government bailouts, and the funds subsequently released will be absorbed by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Over-construction and subsequent bailouts
Hayes pointed out that the current construction boom will make computing power "extremely cheap and extremely abundant." Looking back on financial history, he said: "If you study financial history and the promotion process of every major technology, you will find that they have always experienced over-construction. What will inevitably follow will be a collapse and subsequent government bailout." He cited the situation after the 2008 financial crisis and other similar incidents as examples.
"Fortunately, we have Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to absorb this excess liquidity. So we know which asset types will perform best when a bailout comes." "You just have to be patient," he told investors.
Hayes claims that SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are the main end users behind the demand for computing power, and none of these companies are currently profitable. His views are supported by Anthropic's own data. The company's prospectus released ahead of a possible initial public offering showed that its 2025 revenue is expected to be $4.6 billion, a significant increase from the previous $400 million, but a net loss of nearly $42 billion, including $34 billion in non-cash expenses. In addition, computing and infrastructure costs were $7.33 billion, accounting for more than half of total operating expenses of $12.65 billion.
Hayes predicts that once the data center under construction is completed, infrastructure providers will require Anthropic and other AI companies to pay for the computing power they have promised to use, which is expected to be late 2027 or 2028. However, he also left room and believed that if AI became "extremely useful" in the next 12 months and demand expanded enough to make AI companies profitable, different results could occur. He pointed out that some suppliers such as Nvidia have already achieved profitability.
Debt Logic Behind the Argument
It has been previously reported that Hayes has mentioned that computing power demand driven by some of the largest artificial intelligence developers supports more than US$1 trillion in investment-grade debt. According to his analysis, if these debts are downgraded, insurance companies linked to these debts will face a capital shortage, forcing Washington to either buy computing power as a last resort or print money to implement the rescue.
在此前，这位加密货币投资者还预测，明年的AI支出将会放缓，随后出现收缩，而规模可能超过2008年的救助措施可能会推动比特币价格逼近100万美元。
