链上分析指出:比特币近期上涨主要由存量资金推动,新增资金流入影响有限
根据区块链数据分析平台 Glassnode 的分析,比特币近期的价格反弹主要得益于市场上已流通资产的活跃,而非大量新资本的涌入。
新增资金对比特币增长的拉动作用受限
Glassnode 的数据显示,截至 10 月 5 日,过去 30 天内流入比特币的“新资金”累计净流入额为 49 亿美元。这些资金流入反映了企业国库的采购、稳定币储备的增长以及资本进入美国现货比特币 ETF 的情况。
尽管有新资金注入,但在同一 30 天周期内,比特币的“实现市值”(Realized Cap,即每枚硬币在链上最后一次移动时的价格总和)增长了 128 亿美元。这一指标表明,现有持有者在推动实现市值增长方面发挥了更主导的作用。
Glassnode 在其最新的《链上一周》通讯中写道:“因此,‘新资金’仅覆盖了此次涨幅的五分之二不到。其余部分则是市场内既有资金以更高价格交易已有硬币的结果。”
数据进一步显示,自 2024 年 1 月(美国现货比特币 ETF 启动的月份)以来,BTC/USD 的反弹呈现出新资金与实现市值增长之间的类似背离现象。然而,与 2024 年初实现的短期实现市值大幅扩张相比,当前的资金流入显得更为温和。
Glassnode:一家区块链数据分析平台,通过分析链上活动、市场走势和投资者行为,提供关于比特币及其他加密货币的见解和指标。
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