Ethereum price forecast: "We thought it would take five years", BitMine's holdings were only 100,

Ethereum's largest single buyer is about to stop increasing holdings: BitMine's holdings approach the 5% limit

The world's largest Ether spot buyer will stop increasing holdings within a few weeks. According to BitMine's official statement, it currently holds 6,016,414 Ethereum units, accounting for approximately 4.9% of the total circulation of 122.1 million units. Based on a ratio of 5%, it is approximately 6.105 million Ethereum pieces, which means that the plan has only about 100,000 Ethereum pieces left. Based on last week's purchase rate, this process can only last for six to seven weeks.

For Ethereum's market forecast, this means that the demand side has lost a buyer that has been entering every week since mid-2025, and this incident occurs at a stage when funds are being withdrawn. In early trading Thursday, Ethereum traded at US$2,566.99, down 1.1% intraday and 4.5% weekly.

How you view this situation depends more on three factors that you can control: your holding cycle, buying channels, and whether you choose to keep Ethereum idle or use it as collateral. This article will break down Tuesday and Wednesday's data to analyze which key indicators will dominate the market in the coming weeks.

BitMine holds 6,016,414 Ethereum units, which is only about 100,000 units short of the 5% cap.

Since mid-2025, BitMine Immersion Technologies has established the largest Ethereum treasury among listed companies. Its October 5 announcement showed that the company holds 6,016,414 Ethereum units and purchased approximately 15,112 Ethereum units the previous week, worth approximately US$41 million at market prices. Compared with the circulation supply of 122.1 million pieces, this accounted for 4.9%.

"Circulation supply" refers to the actual tradeable tokens and does not include locked positions. The 5% upper limit is approximately 6.105 million Ethereum pieces. The remaining approximately 100,000 Ethereum pieces are the last remaining amount of the plan.

Transform this into a concept of time and scale becomes concrete. If the rate of 15,112 Ethereum per week remains unchanged, it will take another six to seven weeks to reach the upper limit. Based on the current pace, the end time of the purchase plan will fall in late November or early December. If the pace slows down, the date will be postponed; if it accelerates, it will be advanced. The ceiling is fixed, but this is not the case for the specific date.

Tom Lee in Singapore calls the 5% cap a hard ceiling

BitNE Chairman Tom Lee made the above remarks at the TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore on Wednesday. He called it "the alchemy of 5%" and described the threshold as a hard ceiling. Regarding the speed of opening positions, he said: "We thought it would take five years." He added: "It took us a whole year to do this." These two remarks were made against the background of the sharp devaluation of Ethereum.

What is worth noting is the shift in stance. In August, Lee explained in an interview with Bankless that his company had no reason to sell Ethereum: Airdrop revenue of about $300 million per year would be enough to cover the $30 million to 35 million dividend needed for 9.5% of Series A preferred shares, and said the 5% issue would be reviewed in 2027. Six weeks later, the prospect of openness has turned to the ceiling.

市场立即对此进行了重新定价。BitNE股价周三下跌7%，竞争对手SharpLink下跌5%，Michael Saylor的Strategy也下跌了5%。对于通过上市国库公司而非受监管交易平台获取加密货币敞口的投资者而言，本周令人不安的经验教训在于：停止增长的国库将失去其最重要的叙事逻辑。

质押收益成为新的卖出来源：以太坊供应面发生何种变化

公告的第二部分对供应面的影响更为沉重。Lee透露，BitMine可能会出售通过质押获得的以太坊，以保持其持股比例低于5%的上限。这样一来，买家将转变为卖家。

规模体现在公司自身的声明中。约5,067,309枚以太坊（占国库的84%，市值约138亿美元）已通过内部验证器网络MAVAN及合作伙伴进行质押。按7天收益率2.63%计算，年化收益约为3.63亿美元。如果未来这笔资金流入市场而非国库，这种规模的额外供应将与已经承压的市场相遇。

“质押”是指抵押自己的以太坊以帮助确认区块，并获得新币作为奖励。如果自行操作，在选择提供商之前务必了解锁定周期和提取时间：我们的平台对比提供了收益率、最低金额和支付时长的详细对照。

五天内ETF流出5.063亿美元，创1月以来最高纪录

The second pressure point comes from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On October 6, the net outflow of the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF was approximately US$202 million, of which almost all US$201.89 million went to BlackRock's ETHA. A further outflow of $160.8 million was also led by ETHA ($116.1 million), followed by Grayscale's ETHA ($25.8 million). The total outflow in the five trading days reached US$506.3 million, the highest five-day data since January 23, 2026.

For comparison: The same fund group still pooled $832 million in September. Due to the different fund groups and deadlines used by each provider, the statistical methods vary; some institutions call October 7 the sixth consecutive day of outflows, while others call it the seventh day. But the direction remains consistent across all statistics.

If you package Ethereum through funds rather than directly holding Ethereum, you will assume this mechanism. Outflows force issuers to sell tokens in custody, exacerbating the actions that triggered the outflows. Which packaging is physically supported and which is run through debt securities needs to be checked in the issuer's key information documents.

Ethereum price at $2,566: Support levels at $2,548 and $2,500

In early Thursday morning, Ethereum was trading at $2,566.99, down about 8.5% from the weekly high of $2,806. The next widely watched support level is at $2,548, with the integer barrier below it at $2,500.

本周发布情景的技术分析师指出，若2,500美元支撑位被有效跌破，下一个承接区间在2,330至2,355美元之间，随后则是2,200美元。上方方面，2,800美元附近区域构成阻力，在这些分析中，只有当资金从流出转为流入时，该位置才被视为可靠。这些是外部评估，并非保证；2,200美元至2,800美元之间的跨度主要显示了预期的巨大差异。

对于预测而言，序列比任何单一数字更重要。只要BitMine继续购买，市场上每周就有一位买家存在。之后他将消失，而质押流可能转而成为卖压。因此，如果你关注某个点位，请将其与日期挂钩，而非感觉。

Glamsterdam升级在Sepolia测试网运行，Hoodi和主网尚无日期

供应面只是故事的一半，另一半是下一次重大网络升级“Glamsterdam”。目前有一个已记录的中间阶段和一个开放的截止日期。在Sepolia测试网上，该升级于德国时间10月6日15:53激活，对应第353,024个纪元和第11,296,768个槽位；七个纪元后链完成最终确定，分叉标识符从0x90000075移至0x90000076。

For the next two stages, the opposite lack of clarity is true. The Ethereum Foundation announcement clearly stated that the activation dates for the Hoodi test network and main network have not yet been decided. During the phone call, the developer proposed October 27 as the date for Hoodi's proposal, but it was not unanimously agreed. Mainnet's target remains for the fourth quarter of 2026, but there is no specific era or date. As of Thursday, there were 84 days left before the quarter.

In essence, Glamstam brought 18 improvement proposals. EIP-7732 anchors the separation of proposers and block builders at the consensus level and gives new responsibilities to verifiers. EIP-7928 fixes the list of accounts and storage slots touched by each block. EIP-8037 reprices Gas fees based on permanent growth in status. The Titan and Ultrasound teams 'build software has not yet fully followed the fork on Sepolia, so developers are cautious on Hoodi.

This means for forecasts: an uncertain date cannot be a price driver. Betting on today's upgrade is like betting on a quarter, not a certain day.

Position cycle and tax exemption limit: 365 days to separate income and tax bills

Regardless of the price, what you can control is the tax aspect. In Germany, the tax authorities consider Ethereum as another asset under Article 23 of the Income Tax Act. If it is sold within one year after purchase, the proceeds are subject to tax and levied at the personal tax rate. If there is more than one year between purchase and sale, no matter how large or small the gain is, it is exempt from tax.

There are two numbers related to this. For gains within a one-year window, a tax exemption limit of € 1,000 per year applies from 2024. Unlike deductions, tax exemptions mean that once exceeded, all proceeds will be taxed, not just the excess. Pledged income falls under Article 22, paragraph 3, with a tax exemption limit of 256 euros per year.

The burden of proof is on you. Without the purchase date, price and quantity of each acquisition, the tax authority cannot recognize a one-year window period and in adverse circumstances, it will regard all sales revenue as revenue. So download your transaction statements now instead of waiting until May; the exchange moves and closes the account and the records disappear. For multiple acquisitions, the first-in, first-out method is used to carry forward and allocate them at any time. For procedures that can automatically generate these records from exchange statements, see our tax software comparison.

Buying channels under MiCA: What to pay attention to when selecting an exchange

Since the European crypto asset market regulations fully came into effect, providers providing trading or custody services in the EU need to obtain authorization from crypto asset service providers. The authorization is publicly available: BaFin maintains the registry of German licensed companies, and the European regulator ESMA maintains the registry of the entire alliance.

Before buying Ethereum, there are three points worth noting. The first is the authorization itself, second is whether the provider isolates your tokens from its own positions, and third is the total cost of transaction fees and bid-ask spreads. The third point is often underestimated: a platform with no order fees may be more expensive than a platform with clear fees due to price differences. Our German trading platform compares the two for analysis.

If you plan to hold tokens for a long time, custody is also part of the decision. Ethereum in an exchange account legally belongs to the provider; only when it is transferred to your own wallet do you become the key holder. This is not a price issue, but a safety issue.

Leverage and Liquidation: Closing $102 million in 24 hours

Markets cleared leveraged positions on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the 24 hours before and after falling below $2,600, Ethereum futures positions worth approximately $102 million were forcibly closed, mainly as bullish bets.

"Clearing" means that the exchange automatically releases a leveraged position when collateral no longer covers the position. At 5 times leverage, a reverse fluctuation of about 20% is enough to trigger liquidation; at 10 times leverage, it is about 10%. Volatility this week is in these ranges, which is why it attracts a large number of positions.

In practice, leverage shortens the time it takes for your calculations to take effect. Betting on BitMine's planned end or upgrade dates in the coming weeks means using fixed mortgage thresholds to counter open deadlines. This is an unequal competition.

Summary: The last 100,000 Ethereum units before BitMine purchase limit

The situation can be summarized in one sentence: the most reliable buyers have set caps for the first time in the past 15 months, funds are being withdrawn, and there are no main-network dates for possible balancing upgrades. This leads to three steps:

1. Keep records: Download a statement of the transactions you purchased and indicate the date, price, and quantity entered for each transaction. A comparison of tax software shows how to automatically generate this data from exchange statements.
2. Reassess buying channels: Compare your provider's trading fees and spreads to licensed competitors before buying more. Data can be found in the Trading Platform Overview.
3. If you hold it for a long time, consider pledge: If you leave Ethereum idle for many years, you should understand the lock-in period, withdrawal time and provider risks; pledge comparison displays them side by side.

(As of October 8, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)