Bitcoin ETF suffered its largest outflow of funds since June, with a net outflow of $485 million in

Spot Bitcoin ETF suffered a large net outflow, and market volatility intensified

According to Farside Investors data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of US$484.9 million on Wednesday. This is the largest single-day withdrawal since June 25, when funds were lost of $691.7 million. The outflow reversed Tuesday's net inflow of $118.8 million.

Wednesday's outflows erased all the fund's October gains. Previously, the fund had a cumulative inflow of US$321.6 million in the first four trading days of October. Currently, the total net outflow in October is approximately $163 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led the selling wave, with an outflow of US$207.7 million; Fidelity's FBTC outflow of US$105.1 million; and ARK21 Shares 'ARKB outflow of US$101.7 million. It is worth noting that IBIT recorded a net inflow of US$122 million the previous day.

Bitcoin trading prices hovered around $82,700 on Thursday, the lowest level this month. Prices have fallen about 5% in less than a week since hitting a high of $87,249 on October 2. Despite this, the Bitcoin price is still about 34% lower than the historical record of $126,251 set in early October 2025.

Ethereum Fund performed weaker

The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF performed weaker, with a net outflow of US$160.9 million on Wednesday, the seventh consecutive trading day of capital outflows. Since September 29, this type of fund has lost approximately US$569 million. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA lost $116.1 million on Wednesday alone.

Review of market trends: from peak to trough

The all-time high in October 2025 was soon followed by a liquidation of leveraged positions of approximately $19 billion. Selling pressure lasted throughout the winter, with Bitcoin falling to $72,800 in early February, its lowest level since November 2024.

Subsequently, the escalation of conflicts between the United States, Israel and Iran further deepened the downward trend in the market. Oil prices rose after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. By late March, bitcoin trading prices were close to US$68,000, down more than 20% from the early days of the conflict.

The market bottom came in late June at US$58,642, about half the peak. As prices fell, ETF investors left the market. As of July 13, the cumulative capital flow in 2026 was negative US$5.69 billion, while the outflow of US$691.7 million on June 25 occurred during this decline.

Recovery and fading in September

Demand returns in September. ETFs recorded net inflows for seven consecutive days from September 17 to 25, totaling approximately US$2.98 billion. Capital flows have turned positive for the first time since 2026, a reversal of approximately US$6.6 billion compared to July.

The week ending September 25 saw inflows of US$2.39 billion, the largest weekly net inflow since October 2025. Long-term yields fell, driven by the Treasury's plan to double the repurchase of long-term Treasurys, forcing billions of dollars in short positions to be liquidated. Bitcoin took this opportunity to climb and break through the $80,000 mark.

然而，这种势头在几天内便有所放缓。截至10月2日那一周的净流入仅为约2.4亿美元，远低于前一周的水平。随后，每日资金流在周一和周三再次转为负值。

市场承压因素分析

债券收益率是主要的宏观压力来源。近几周的报告指出，美国30年期国债收益率首次自2007年以来突破5%。日本收益率也达到了几十年来的高位。与伊朗冲突相关的油价上涨使得通胀担忧持续存在。

市场预期随之发生转变。市场开始定价美联储加息而非降息的可能性增加。较高的利率使得比特币等无收益资产吸引力下降。由于美联储会议纪要原定周三发布，这在资金流出前加剧了市场的谨慎情绪。

杠杆效应进一步放大了市场波动。据报道，当比特币周三跌破84,000美元时，加密市场发生了约5.5亿美元的清算。强制抛售压低价格，并可能触发基金的赎回行为。

冷静看待与潜在担忧

单日的资金流出并不能逆转整体趋势。据Farside数据，自推出以来，ETF持有者累计投入约574亿美元，且直至9月下旬，年初至今的资金流仍为正数。周二的净流入表明，在市场疲软时仍有买家入场。

Technical analysts also view $82,000 to $82,500 as support. If Bitcoin holds on to this area, some analysts believe its weekly chart pattern remains intact. Wednesday's low of $83,269 was close to that range, while Thursday's prices were on the edge of that range.

However, concerns are also real. The flow of funds is highly dependent on a single fund, with most recent inflows coming from IBIT. When it turns to a net sell, the entire category also turns around.

The divergence with Ethereum has increased caution. Seven consecutive days of outflows show that institutional investors are cutting back on a wide range of crypto asset allocations, not just bitcoin. High yields, expensive oil prices and potential interest rate hikes constitute a macro background that has not yet improved.

Follow-up Focus

The next daily capital flow report is crucial. A second large-scale outflow will confirm that the inflow in September is reversing. If IBIT re-leads net inflows, it suggests that Wednesday's outflow was only a one-day reaction.

Price levels and bond yields will determine this choice. Bitcoin needs to hold on to $82,000 to maintain the momentum of the recovery it has seen since July. Yields, oil prices and Fed policy expectations will determine whether institutions continue to increase exposure or withdraw again.