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BTC 比特币承压下行，机构成本线成关键支撑
作为领先加密货币的比特币此前已横盘整理一段时间，但近期的市场动态加剧了抛售压力。BTC价格一度跌至82,000美元附近。此时，与美国政府关联钱包的活动以及霍尔木兹海峡的地缘紧张局势共同推动油价突破100美元大关，进而压制全球风险偏好，并进一步增加比特币的抛售压力，导致价格突然下跌。
随着市场继续讨论比特币价格是否会持续下滑，关键的价格水平成为焦点。目前，机构投资者在比特币上的持仓成本指向了一个至关重要的支撑区域。
两大主要机构群体成本相近：目光聚焦77,000-79,000美元区间
分析公司Alphractal的首席执行官Joao Wedson分析了机构投资者的比特币平均持仓成本。数据显示，美国现货比特币ETF和公开交易公司的总比特币持仓量已达257万枚，其中相当一部分资产的成本接近77,000至79,000美元区间。因此，维持这一区域对于机构投资者保持仓位盈利至关重要。
具体数据如下：
- 美国现货ETF：持有129万枚BTC，平均成本为76,909美元。
- 公开交易公司：持有128万枚BTC，平均成本为78,834美元。
A total of 2.57 million BTC units account for almost 13% of the market supply, and the purchase price is almost the same.
Billions of dollars in profits emerge when Bitcoin is at $83,000
Under scenarios with a Bitcoin price of $83,200, ETF investors have an MVRV (market capital-to-realized value ratio) of 1.08 times and an unrealized profit of approximately $8.1 billion; while publicly traded companies have an MVRV ratio of 1.06 times and an unrealized profit of approximately $5.6 billion.
Wedson points out that if the price falls below $83,000, the cost of the iShares Bitcoin Trust Fund (IBIT) is $81,277, the Treasury Management Company is $79,782, the Strategy (MSTR) is $75,441, the cost of public miners is $69,498, and the cost of private companies is $33,789.
Key areas previously tested
Another point Wedson highlighted in his post was what happened when Bitcoin previously fell to $58,500. According to analysts, although the average position of ETF investors shrank by about 24% during this period, there was no large-scale surrender selling.
Therefore, as long as Bitcoin remains above US$77,000 to US$79,000, selling pressure may be limited by keeping a large number of institutional investors profitable. Conversely, losing this area could cause institutional positions of approximately 2.57 million BTC to turn into losses, thereby increasing selling pressure on the market.
This article does not constitute investment advice.
