JPMorgan Chase: ETF recovery drives crypto-asset inflows to $50 billion

JPMorgan Chase: Digital assets attracted approximately US$50 billion in inflows during the year, and investment momentum increased in the fourth quarter.

According to JPMorgan analysts, with the recovery of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) capital flows and futures positions. The increase in investment momentum in digital assets has increased significantly at the beginning of the fourth quarter, attracting approximately US$50 billion in inflows this year.

Summary of Core Points

• The net inflow of US$50 billion has caused digital assets to show an annualized growth rate of approximately US$66 billion.
• Since the recovery in August, ETF funding flows in 2026 have turned positive.
• Bank data shows that Bitcoin futures positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have exceeded previous peaks.
• Bitcoin miners sold net US$1.8 billion this year, with listed companies being the main selling force.

Investment structure changes and capital flow analysis

The JPMorgan analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a report released on Wednesday that investment activity in the third quarter became less dependent on large companies buying bitcoin and venture capital funds, which provided the majority of capital inflows in the first half. The bank estimates annualized inflows at about $66 billion, exceeding the $52 billion growth rate recorded in May. Despite the improvement, analysts believe the current growth rate is still about half that of the same period last year.

为了进行最新计算，研究团队扩大了覆盖范围，将私营公司国库、私营矿工以及政府相关实体的数字资产购买行为纳入其中。此前，该行的估算仅结合了加密货币基金的资金流、CME期货隐含的活动、风险融资以及公开上市矿工和公司国库的购买行为。

报告显示，在经历5月和6月的巨额流出后，加密ETF资金流自8月开始改善，并已在年内重回正增长区间。分析师指出，上半年基金赎回对流入构成了拖累，而Strategy公司的比特币购买和风险融资则提供了大部分投资资本。

然而，若采用不同的起始日期计算，该行发现自2025年10月10日开始的市场回调以来，累计ETF资金流仍为负值。因此，报告记录了日历年的正向资金流，同时也指出了自那次下跌以来的剩余赤字。

机构持仓与杠杆情况

9月份的美国基金活动为这一复苏提供了背景参考。此前数据显示，大量资金涌入美国现货比特币ETF，随后部分杠杆头寸随之积累。近期美国市场则出现了大幅赎回。10月8日的数据显示，10月7日有4.849亿美元离开这些基金，这是自6月25日以来最大的单日流出量。

具体来看，贝莱德的IBIT损失了2.077亿美元，富达的FBTC流失了1.051亿美元，ARK 21Shares的ARKB记录到1.017亿美元的赎回。Farside的数据还显示，当天有1.609亿美元离开美国现货以太坊ETF，使其连续七个交易日处于赎回状态。

与此同时，摩根大通的报告指出，继2026年初缓慢开局后，过去两个月内机构在CME重新建立了比特币和以太坊的期货头寸。分析师称，比特币持仓量已超越此前峰值，以太坊持仓量也接近2025年10月的高点。其动量指标还显示，包括商品交易顾问在内的趋势跟踪交易者正在重建这两种资产的多头头寸。

“第三季度，ETF资金流和期货持仓量均有所增加，”分析师写道，并将这种组合描述为“进入第四季度的积极资金流动势头”。对于离岸永续合约，团队比较了未平仓头寸与比特币和以太坊的市场价值。根据计算，尽管这两项杠杆指标在10月10日回调后从峰值下降，但仍高于历史平均水平。

企业采购与矿业动态

In its assessment, the bank believes that the increase in ETF capital flows and futures holdings in the third quarter indicates higher participation by retail and institutional investors compared to the first half of the year, which was dominated by the treasury. In terms of corporate treasury, JPMorgan attributed most of its purchases to publicly traded companies. Analysts pointed out that Strategy quickly bought Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, accounting for most of the total inflow of digital assets.

Small purchases from private corporate treasury were attributed to fewer financing options and a lower tolerance for bitcoin price volatility. The report said the Public Treasury Corporation funded purchases through common stock issues, debt and preferred stock. The financing portfolio is gradually tilted towards preferred shares, while interest and dividend payments are considered ongoing financing obligations.

In addition, the bank noted in a July report that Strategy had increased its dollar balance from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, enough to pay about 20 months of preferred stock dividends. At the time, JPMorgan said the extra cash reduced market concerns that it might need to sell Bitcoin to meet payment needs. Analysts have previously argued that reserves covering two to three years of preferred stock dividends would help ease concerns about forced sales.

Outside corporate treasuries, new reports show that crypto venture capital funding has improved since 2024, but capital is increasingly concentrated in a few large-scale rounds involving mature companies. For infrastructure companies with clearer cash flows, analysts point to increasing use of debt financing rather than equity financing. The report also found that venture capitalists are increasingly interested in tokenization projects, especially those that serve corporate customers.

On the supply side, JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin miners have sold net $1.8 billion this year, an amount analysts describe as relatively modest. The report points out that publicly listed miners constitute a major part of this change. The bank said listed miners have begun selling newly produced bitcoins and in some cases reducing existing positions to fund spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.