Inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a resurgence of concerns about the Federal Reserve

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通胀数据超预期，比特币跌至82,142美元

周三，受美国通胀数据高于预期的影响，比特币价格下跌1.5%，报82,142美元，整个加密货币市场随之承压。以太坊下跌2.8%至2,440美元，Solana下跌1.9%，XRP下跌1.3%，加密市场总市值缩水0.7%，至2.8万亿美元。

根据美国劳工统计局的数据，9月份消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨3.7%，高于8月份的3.4%。经济学家此前预期为3.6%。汽油价格在单月内飙升9.1%，贡献了超过一半的涨幅。

剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的“核心CPI”同比上涨2.6%，略高于2.5%的预期值。这是美联储最关注的指标，因为它能显示价格压力是否蔓延至租金、机票和服务领域。

高油价推升通胀，加息预期升温

昂贵的汽油源于高昂的原油价格。在过去两个月中，由于美伊之间的战争局势，原油价格大部分时间维持在每桶90美元以上。燃料价格上涨几乎推高了所有商品的生产成本和运输成本。

当通胀高企时，美联储通常会通过提高利率来抑制消费。美联储已在9月将利率上调至3.75%-4.00%区间。根据芝商所FedWatch数据显示，在最新报告发布前，交易者认为下一次10月27-28日会议上再次加息的概率约为22%，而目前这一概率已升至44%至49%之间。

The yield on the 2-year Treasury bonds, which is closely related to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations, increased by about 10 basis points to around 4.9%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds also rose to around 5.3%, hitting a level close to its highest point in 24 years.

The macroeconomic environment has had a direct impact on the cryptocurrency market.

The rise in yields has significantly affected the cryptocurrency market. Government bonds with virtually no risk offer a yield of 5.3%, which competes with Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow at all. The increase in interest rates also leads to higher borrowing costs and often strengthens the US dollar, thereby depleting the cheap funds that are necessary for speculative investments. This is why, on the same day, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.6%, and the NASDAQ index fell by 0.8%.

Additionally, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market is higher than that of the stock market. Many traders borrow money to bet on price increases. When prices fall below certain levels, exchanges automatically close out these positions, a process known as “liquidation”. This forced selling further lowers prices, leading to more chain reactions of liquidation. So far, in the past 24 hours, more than $281 million in cryptocurrency derivatives positions have been liquidated. Most of this occurred within the last four hours, and most of these positions were long positions on Bitcoin (i.e., those who suffered losses due to price drops).

Technical analysis: Key support levels under macroeconomic pressure

Looking at the daily chart, the opening price of Bitcoin was $83,066. Currently, it is trading around $82,211, which is within the Fibonacci “golden area” that was regained on Tuesday. This area is generally considered a retracement level where buyers are attracted to buy back.

The average price over the past 50 days remains higher than the average price for the past 200 days, indicating that the long-term upward trend continues. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the strength of trends, currently stands at 27.7 on a scale of 0 to 100 (above 25 indicates a trend is present). This figure is lower than 29.9 on Tuesday, suggesting that traders still hold bullish views, though their enthusiasm is not as strong as before. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from 0 to 100, reaching 48.7, slightly below the 50 level that distinguishes between bullish and bearish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been stable for eight consecutive days, indicating that volatility is being reduced, and a major market movement is likely to occur. Its reading of -0.76 suggests a slightly bearish outlook. In terms of future prospects, attention should be paid to the PPI and Federal Reserve decisions. If the daily closing price falls below $81,603, it will break through the support level, and the swing low of $80,365 will become apparent. Below this point, the trend line lies around $80,284. If this support is broken, further resistance at $78,003 may be reached. On the upside, bulls will need to regain control of the $84,245 level before aiming for $85,301, $86,644, and the October high of $87,422. Next, tests will take place on Thursday, when the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released. This indicator tracks the costs that businesses pay for goods and services. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions on October 28th.