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特斯拉将10月1日Roadster发布押注于华尔街的保证金算术

2026-09-18 04:16:22
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特斯拉将于10月1日揭晓久拖不决的第二代Roadster,CEO埃隆·马斯克借此提振低迷股价

特斯拉(Tesla)宣布将于10月1日正式发布其迟来的第二代Roadster跑车。此时,该公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克正试图通过这一盛大活动来提振股价,因为该股今年已累计下跌约20%。

核心要点

  • 特斯拉定于10月1日发布Roadster。这款车型最早于2017年11月亮相,曾承诺于2020年开始交付。
  • 分析师共识目标价约为397美元,但个体预测范围从125美元到600美元不等。
  • 第二季度营收创下历史新高,但营业利润率降至1.4%。

Roadster揭幕日期确定

特斯拉在社交平台X上于9月12日发布了一条“准备发射”的预告动态,并附有显示日期的图形。马斯克随后在简短回复中确认了这一计划。此后,公司向预订持有者发送了前往德克萨斯州韦科市参加展示活动的邀请函。目前,官方Roadster页面上已开启倒计时。然而,特斯拉尚未公布该车的定价、规格或确定的交付日期。

外界关注的焦点在于可选配的冷气体推进器,该装置由SpaceX工程师打造,旨在实现车辆离地飞行功能。马斯克表示,无论发布会展示何种内容,生产将在揭秘后12至18个月启动。

特斯拉股价迎来催化剂

投资者面对的是表现滞后的股价。截至9月15日收盘价为360.45美元。相比之下,Polymarket上的交易员对2024年12月31日前完成Roadster交付的概率定价仅为4.5%,且总交易量仅约1,019美元,显得极为冷清。华尔街的态度则更为乐观。43位分析师将共识目标价定为396.94美元,比当前价格高出约8%。然而,个体预测从125美元到600美元的巨大跨度,反映出市场对于特斯拉价值评估存在显著分歧。

近期的业绩解释了这种分歧。第二季度营收创纪录地达到282.4亿美元,但营业利润率从去年同期的4.1%降至1.4%,原因是人工智能和机器人出租车业务导致运营支出激增47%。因此,此次发布正值公司需要全新故事来吸引关注之际。马斯克在全英峰会(All-In Summit)上表示,成功虽未保证,但兴奋感是真实的。他还补充称,该活动需要现场观众见证,以证明视频素材并非由人工智能生成。

Roadster自2017年以来的延期历程

部分分析师认为,这场营销活动背后有着明确的竞争逻辑。有汽车作家指出,来自Rimac、Pininfarina以及比亚迪旗下仰望品牌的电动超跑,已将零至百公里加速时间缩短至两秒以内的性能变得司空见惯,迫使特斯拉去追求竞争对手无法复制的技术突破。

Tesla also abandoned its earlier design based on Model S Plaid components and instead developed a new carbon fiber supercar. The nine-year wait has become the main theme of this car. Since its debut in 2017, buyers have paid a $50,000 reservation fee, but no one has picked up the car so far. The lengthy delay even triggered a public complaint from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. The release was finalized after this year's April target, end-of-April adjustments, June postponement and August plans.

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