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白银价格预测：为何美联储加息未能打压银价？

2026-09-18 04:17:25
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美联储加息背景下白银强势反弹

尽管美联储采取了通常会对贵金属构成压力的政策举措，但白银价格正呈现出强劲的反弹态势。周三，美联储将基准利率上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，这是自2023年以来的首次加息。白银起初承压，但弱势迅速逆转，周四金属价格飙升约4.6%。

这一反应尤为引人注目，因为在本月初，白银一直在应对不断升温的美联储加息风险。

美元与美债收益率缓解白银压力

周四，随着油价回落，美元指数走弱，长期美债收益率也随之退坡。这两项变动均利好白银。美元走弱使得国际买家购买白银的成本降低，而债券收益率下降则降低了持有无息资产的机会成本。

此前，在消费者价格指数（CPI）数据和美联储加息风险的考验下，白银曾在66美元附近徘徊，随后出现了这种反转行情。

白银能否触及70美元？

从长期来看，紧张的供应局面为白银提供了支撑。世界白银协会预计，全球市场将在2026年录得连续第六年的供应赤字，同时实物投资需求预计将增加。

目前的焦点转向70美元关口。如果白银能维持反弹势头，且美债收益率和美元保持受控状态，那么再次冲击70美元的目标或将进入视野。然而，收益率的再度飙升可能会迅速对银价施压。

这一风险依然不容忽视，因为美联储已暗示借贷成本可能维持在高位。关于美联储加息后的后续走势，已有详细分析探讨了这一背景。目前的关键信号很简单：美联储提高了利率，白银一度抛售，但买家随即回归。

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