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FollowingTLDR
MU shares face a higher threshold for performance expectations. First-quarter guidance may dominate market response, with strategic customer agreements (SCAs), HBM4 progress and supply conditions remaining the focus.
Contents
MU share price faces higher threshold for performance expectations
First quarter guidance may dominate market reaction
Strategic customer agreements, HBM4 and supply conditions remain the focus of attention
MU share price faces higher threshold for performance expectations
Micron Technology (Micron, ticker symbol: MU) will release its fiscal fourth-quarter results after hours on September 30. Year-to-date, MU's share price has risen by 273.63%. Investors will be closely watching the outlook for the fiscal first quarter as the next quarter returns to the standard 13-week cycle. A change in this time span may cause the month-on-month guidance to look weaker, but it does not necessarily represent a similar decline in weekly demand.
Micron Technology previously reported that revenue in the previous quarter reached US$41.46 billion, an increase of 345.7% from the same period last year. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $25.11, higher than market expectations of $20.28, achieving the seventh consecutive quarter of exceeding expectations. The gross profit margin reached 84.9%, and the management's fiscal fourth-quarter revenue guidance was US$50 billion, with a fluctuation of US$1 billion.
此外，管理层预计 EPS 为 31.00 美元，毛利率接近 86%。然而，管理层警告称“价格上涨幅度将出现显著放缓”。这一信号至关重要，因为美光在财报前的市场氛围已经反映出高企的预期，这源于其强劲的近期表现。
第一季度指引可能主导市场反应
财政第四季度包含14周，而正常季度通常为13周。若将 500 亿美元的中间值调整至13周，约为 464.3 亿美元。目前分析师模型预测财政第一季度营收为 568.5 亿美元，EPS 为 34.9476 美元。因此，投资者可能需要区分日历效应与业务趋势。
MU 股价走势也表明，业绩超预期并不能保证股价上涨。尽管美光在最近八次报告中均超越了市场预期，但随后一周股价平均下跌了 3.44%。近期的内存供应担忧也为交易者观察价格走势增添了另一个变量。
战略客户协议、HBM4 及供应情况仍是关注焦点
美光已签署 16 份战略客户协议，其中 14 份涉及约 1000 亿美元的营收，且设有价格底线。管理层还预计本季度将获得约 100 亿美元的客户预付款。新协议的达成可能使投资者对未来需求和合同支持的营收有更高的可见度。
The company's goal is to increase HBM (high-bandwidth memory) market share to a level close to its DRAM (dynamic random access memory) market share, while the HBM4 12-high ramp up faster than the HBM3E12-high. Recent AI memory demand reports continue to focus on production capacity, competition and pricing. Management expects that memory supply will remain tight until 2027.
Micron expects supply conditions to only gradually improve in 2028, while Idaho's ID2 fab plans to achieve its first wafer output by the end of 2028. MU shares currently trade at a P/E ratio of 24 times trailing earnings and 7 times forward earnings. Given that expectations are already high, guidance for the fiscal first quarter may carry more weight for investors than another quarter when results exceed expectations.
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