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BTC It is expected that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue its strong performance in October. On-chain data indicates that a local bottom is being formed.
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may still maintain strong performance in October, just as it has done in the past. The key points are as follows:
- On-chain data shows that, following historical patterns, Bitcoin could still perform strongly at the end of October.
- The amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges decreased by 1.7% compared to mid-September. Large investors avoided selling their positions.
- There are signs that “apparent demand” will shift from negative to positive in 2026.
Price analysis indicates possible signs of a “potential bottom”.
A new analysis published on the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant on Monday indicates that on-chain conditions are “cautiously optimistic”. Bitcoin continues to face mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, including high yields on U.S. government bonds, rising oil prices, and a slowdown in funds flowing into exchange-traded products (ETPs). These factors have dampened expectations that Bitcoin will achieve strong performance in October.
XWIN Research Japan wrote: “Currently, signs of a potential bottom are emerging.”
Since early October, the situation has been increasingly favorable for crypto assets and risk assets. XWIN indicates that the expectation of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve being postponed until 2027 increases the likelihood of increased capital inflows. At the same time, as the midterm elections approach, markets expect a clearer understanding of the domestic political situation in the United States. “The reduction in political uncertainty after the elections could help investors re-evaluate their asset allocations,” XWIN adds.
The BTC reserves in exchanges, apparent demand, and positions held by large investors have led XWIN to believe that there may have been temporary lows in October.
As of Tuesday, the supply of BTC in exchanges decreased from 2.726 million units on September 20 to 2.68 million units, a decrease of 1.7%, although there was a slight increase over the past week. Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, the total amount of BTC held by large investors remains above 3 million units. During the period from October 2nd, when the price dropped from $87,000 to around $80,000 on October 8th, this group’s willingness to reduce their positions remained strong. Source: CryptoQuant
Demand for BTC remains positive in October
“Apparent demand” is an indicator that measures the difference between newly mined BTC and dormant supply, indicating that overall demand continues to be supportive. Related reports: BTC continues to pressurize the 84,000 USD level; U.S. stocks avoid the sell-off of Korean tech stocks
This indicator has been negative throughout 2026, with only a brief positive reading in late August. After that, demand turned negative, but it has since recovered to near-neutral levels this week.
XWIN表示：“这些发展表明筑底的条件正在改善。确认需要持续的ETF资金流入、更强的美国现货买盘以及需求的持续复苏。”“‘Uptober’（十月牛市）并不意味着不间断的上涨：回调可以为下一轮上涨奠定基础。”
来源：CryptoQuant
本周，加密资产管理公司Bitwise表示，第三季度链上数据显示出在经历历史性显著表现后的“加密春天”。与此同时，CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju于8月底宣布了他所认为的新加密牛市起点，称熊市已经结束。
