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山寨币表现优于比特币，但此时并非山寨季

2026-09-29 04:45:17

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山寨币季临近，但尚未确认

加密市场尚未进入明确的山寨币季（Altseason）阶段，然而许多山寨币的表现强劲优于比特币。与以往的周期不同，当前的资金流向集中在少数项目上，主要是那些能够产生收入或满足特定用途的项目。

简要概览

山寨币季正在临近，但尚未得到正式确认。
山寨币季节指数正在上升，但未达到75的阈值。
资金集中于有限的几种山寨币。
能产生收入的协议吸引了更多投资者。
尽管市场筛选更加严格，模因币（Memecoins）依然活跃。

山寨币季临近但尚未确认

目前，比特币的市场主导地位约为58.6%。该指标的持续修正可能标志着资本向市场其他部分的重大轮动。迄今为止，涨幅依然强劲，但在不同板块和项目之间分布极不均匀。

山寨币季节指数已升至100分中的64分，而此前一周为48分。这表明在90天的周期内，越来越多山寨币的表现优于比特币，但该指数仍低于用于确认山寨币季的75分阈值。

目前市场处于一种中间阶段。许多山寨币展现出类似山寨币季的特征性显著表现，但大多数主流加密货币并未超越比特币。

盈利协议吸引更多资本

The best performers are not limited to a single category. In the past thirty days or so, the PONS token has soared by more than 350%, and the Uniswap has risen by more than 110%. Arbitrum climbed more than 150%, and NEAR rose almost 180%(based on available data).

However, Bankless co-founder David Hoffman pointed out that many winners, including UNI, ARB, JUP and ONDO, have one common feature. "They are all making money and they are all generating revenue," he said.

This feature suggests that investors are paying more and more attention to business models than in previous speculative stages. This selectivity is particularly beneficial for exchange agreements, on-chain derivatives platforms, and certain decentralized finance (DeFi) projects. Projects such as HYPE, LIT, UNI and MORPHO all fall into this category.

However, this progress is still partial. Revenue from the agreement has not yet been reallocated to its token holders. Therefore, significant activity does not guarantee continued demand for the asset and does not immediately lead to price increases.

Despite screening, memecoins still exist

As fundamentals return, speculation still exists. As a result, the release platforms of memin PUMP and PONS continue to record considerable activity. Data analyzed by Linch co-founder Sergej Kunz even showed that in the past 30 days, memin has attracted the largest increase in the number of buyers.

Still, their weight among the top performers seems to be declining. Among the approximately twenty cryptocurrencies, only two memecoins ranked at the top of the week's rankings. Puggy Penguins is the only item in this category that has entered the weekly rankings.

其他主题也吸引了一部分资金流。包括Zcash和Moreno在内的隐私相关加密货币，与TAO和VVV等人工智能相关代币同步上涨。此外，代币化的现实世界资产（RWA）和链上股票也吸引了新买家。

这种多样性并不能证明存在全局性的轮动。它更多地表明多种叙事共存，资金在DeFi、AI、隐私、RWA和模因币之间快速流动。

本轮山寨币季范围窄于以往加密周期

据Talos数据显示，目前前十大山寨币占总市值的比例约为80%，而2024年底这一比例约为70%。该公司国际市场监管主管Samar Sen描述称：“这是一个资本集中在较少资产上的市场。”

据报道，经纪商的参与度也有所下降。因此，其在山寨币交易中的份额据称从2024年底的近65%降至2026年9月的32%。流动性提供者和做市商在当前上涨行情中的作用可能不再那么关键。

Samar Sen强调：“投资者关注特定的叙事和生态系统，而不是将山寨币视为单一的全球策略。”

真正的山寨币季可能需要将涨势扩展到少数领先者之外。只要指数保持在75以下，且前十大山寨币集中了大部分资本，市场看起来更像是一种选择性的轮动，而非广泛的普涨。

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