Can Bitcoin rise to $113,000? Citibank raises forecast, ETF demand returns

Citibank raises annual target price for Bitcoin and Ethereum: Reflow of ETF funds drives market recovery

As exchange-traded fund (ETF) funds return to inflow and the crypto market recovers from a mid-year downturn, Citigroup has raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast target to $113,000 and its Ethereum target price to $3,028.

Summary of Core Views

Citibank raised its 12-month bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000 and raised its Ethereum forecast from $2,240 to $3,028. The bank expects an inflow of US$5 billion in crypto-asset funds in the next year, thanks to advisers and brokers gradually increasing the allocation ratio of Bitcoin.

As of mid-July, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had recorded a net outflow of US$5.8 billion, but the flow of funds in 2026 has returned to positive range. Citi pointed out that the U.S. Treasury repurchase program and subsequent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rule announcements have improved the macro context for the crypto market.

Details of target price increase and market performance

According to Reuters, in a report released on Wednesday, Citi raised its Bitcoin estimate from US$82,000 and raised its Ethereum forecast from US$2,240 based on stronger crypto activity, a more favorable macroeconomic background and renewed demand through exchange-traded funds.

At the time of the report's release, Bitcoin was trading at close to $84,000, which means Citi's new price target is about 35% higher than current levels. Ethereum is trading at about $2,700, which puts the bank's estimate of $3,028 about 12% higher.

This revision partially reverses Citi's more cautious outlook in July. Previously, due to weakening demand for ETFs and slowing progress in U.S. crypto legislation, Citi has lowered its bitcoin target price from $112,000 to $82,000 and lowered its Ethereum forecast from $3,175 to $2,240. In fact, Citi lowered these forecasts as early as early as 2026, when it lowered its Bitcoin estimate from $143,000 and lowered its Ethereum target price from $4,304. The flow of ETF funds is the main factor in these two rounds of adjustments.

Institutional demand turns: $5 billion is expected to flow in the next 12 months

Since then, institutional demand has begun to move in the opposite direction. Citi expects an inflow of $5 billion in crypto assets over the next 12 months. The bank believes that although the rate of capital inflows may be weaker than the early periods of strong demand, advisers and brokers are gradually increasing their bitcoin allocation ratios. Citi described this flow of expectations as more stable as financial intermediaries continue to increase their exposure to crypto assets.

Data shows that as of July 13, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of US$5.8 billion in 2026. The deficit has since been smoothed out, and by late September, year-to-date capital flows had rebounded to a positive range of about $800 million.

Recent fund activity supports this shift in this direction. During the trading week from September 21 to September 25, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$2.39 billion, achieving positive inflows for five consecutive trading days. Among them,$999 million was contributed on Monday, and another $714.7 million entered the fund on Tuesday. BlackRock's IBIT product absorbed $1.16 billion in a week, followed by Fidelity's FBTC product with $701.6 million and ARK21 Shares 'ARKB product with $294.7 million.

During the same period, Ethereum Fund also achieved recovery. After recording a net outflow of approximately $140.6 million last week, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF attracted $689.8 million in funds over five positive trading days. BlackRock's ETHA led the way with $326.2 million, and Fidelity's FETH attracted $174.1 million.

Treasury repurchase supports crypto market activity

Citi attributed part of its improved outlook to changes in the macro environment. In the past few months, Bitcoin has lagged behind other risky assets. The bank cited developments including the U.S. Treasury's decision to buy back more long-term government debt. Citi said the move helped weaken the U.S. dollar and helped restore momentum in the crypto market.

During the same period, ETF demand also increased. After the Treasury Department announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchases in August, U.S. spot bitcoin funds attracted approximately $5.3 billion in funding. Subsequently, Bitcoin rose about 40% from its July low. Reuters reported that in the past three months, BTC and ETH have risen nearly 40% and 68% respectively, narrowing their year-to-date declines to about 4% and 9%.

However, these gains have not eliminated pressure on the bond market. U.S. Treasury yields remained high, with the 10-year yield rising above 5% in late September. Even as ETF products continue to receive new capital, Bitcoin has experienced a correction after briefly breaking through $87,000. As a result, fund demand remains positive while underlying assets have fallen from September highs, which has also become a factor in Citi's assessment of its 12-month outlook.

The setback of the CLARITY Act does not affect Citi's forecast

The regulatory environment remains an important part of Citi's assessment. Although the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in September, Citi's forecast did not waver.

On September 15, the Senate voted on H.R. A procedural motion on Bill 3633 was voted on. The voting result of the CLARITY Bill was 49 votes in favor and 50 votes against. One member did not vote. According to regulations, 60 votes are needed to push the bill into formal debate. It was a procedural vote and not a final veto of the legislation. It prevented the Senate from starting debate through the process, but allowed lawmakers to continue negotiating or try other avenues.

Citi said that although the path to passage of the Crypto Market Structure Act was narrowed, subsequent rules announcements issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission reduced the negative sentiment surrounding the setback. Bitcoin rebounded after the Senate took action. After the vote closed on September 15, cryptocurrencies rose by more than 10% at the end of September, and ETF flows returned to positive territory in the second half of the month.

Citi's latest forecast remains below the target set earlier this year. Its Bitcoin forecast stood at $143,000, then dropped to $112,000, and then to $82,000; Ethereum's early $4,304 forecast fell first to $3,175, then to $2,240. The latest revisions set a target for Bitcoin at $113,000 and Ethereum at $3,028 over the next 12 months, and Citi expects advisers and brokers to support approximately $5 billion in inflows as the allocation ratio gradually increases.