Solana price gains weaken, RSI declines and volume shrinks

Core Points

SOL prices fluctuated within a narrow range below their late September highs. The three support levels are clustered in a range of less than $3 wide. Both RSI indicators and trading volume were weaker than at the time of the August breakout. The Solana Foundation has released an open source settlement program based on feedback from JPMorgan Chase.

Market Overview and Key Data

On the daily chart, SOL traded at US$121.93, slightly below the high of US$124.53 set in late September. Over the past week, SOL has mainly fluctuated between $118 and this high, while trading volume has gradually shrunk. The consolidation period coincides with the release of the Solana Foundation's "Solana DvP"(Bond Payment) project-an open source settlement program for financial institutions that is designed with advice from JPMorgan Chase. Although this release strengthens Solana Network's application prospects at the institutional level, the chart does not respond to this, and the level of the current range will determine the next trend.

Support analysis: Triple support is concentrated within the US$3 bandwidth.

The high of US$124.53 marks a rise since US$60.23 in early June, which means that SOL has more than doubled in less than four months. Since mid-August, this rally has entered an upward channel, with the upper track of the channel currently near $127 and the lower track climbing to about $107. The lower boundary has only touched records twice so far: the breakout bottom in August and the low in mid-September. The third test will more strongly verify its reliability.

Both moving averages point upward. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $117.44, closely tracking price movements since mid-September, is the bulls 'first line of defense. Below this, the chart structure is sparse until $109.36, which is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the June-September rally, followed by the 50-day SMA at $106.56 and the channel bottom.

Price/Region Property Description $130 Resistance level Integer gate above channel $127 Resistance level Upper rail of rising channel $124.53 Trigger bit Late September high $121.93 Current Price Weekly consolidation zone between $118 and highs $117.44 Support Level 20th SMA, first line of defense $106.56 – $109.36 Support Belt 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, 50-day SMA and channel bottom $99.97 Support Level 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, bottom in early September

Technical indicator deviation: RSI peak decreased

RSI读数为65.58。当SOL在8月底首次达到110美元时，该指标高于80；而在一个月后推升至124.53美元时，RSI峰值仅接近70。更高的价格对应更低的RSI读数，构成了看跌背离，意味着每一次新高都伴随着较弱的买盘力量。交易量也印证了这一局面：最近几个交易日的成交量属于8月突破以来的最清淡时期之一。

为何摩根大通参与的结算程序未推动SOL价格上涨？

Solana DvP是基础设施，而基础设施不会在交付当天创造需求。该程序以MIT许可证发布，允许两家机构在一个交易中交换代币化证券及其支付款项，从而消除了其中一方交付而另一方违约的风险。在此之前，每个在链上结算的公司都必须编写自己的智能合约。

• 两个托管账户开放：一个持有代币化资产，另一个持有资金。
• 双方注资：由作为结算权威的银行、托管机构或交易所批准。
• 原子交易：两笔转账要么同时完成，要么都不发生。

JPMorgan's role is smaller than some headlines suggest. The bank only provided advice on institutional settlement needs, and the foundation made it clear that JPMorgan did not design, operate, approve or guarantee the project. However, the experience is real: In December 2025, JPMorgan arranged a $50 million commercial paper offering for Galaxy Digital, purchased by Coinbase and Franklin Templeton, and paid in USDC.

The foundation stated that the settlement time was shortened from a day or two to a few seconds. There is currently no institutional transaction volume data for the project, so this is still a proposition. The network in which it is located is already busy, with the foundation's July report showing approximately US$3.7 billion in real-world assets (RWA) other than stablecoins, and Allium data shows that as of August, Solana processed 47% of online RWA transactions for the year.

The direction of breakthrough determines the next trend

Narrow shocks in which trading volume shrinks often end up with a larger K line in one direction. If the daily closing price breaks through US$124.53 under heavy volume conditions, it will open up space to the top of the US$127 channel or even US$130. If the 20-day moving average falls first, the range of US$106.56 to US$109.36 will become a test of the overall structure. If the closing price falls below this range, the channel pattern will be broken and the focus will shift to US$99.97.

For DvP to have an impact on prices, well-known institutions must use it in a production environment, which faces two major obstacles. The confidential settlement function is planned but not online, and banks rarely expose positions on transparent books. Solana is not the only network pursuing such business: DTCC conducted production trading of tokenized securities in July, Swift has 17 banks preparing for a pilot on its own books, and JPMorgan Chase's private Kinexys network has cleared more than $2 billion a day. This week, a joint venture between OKX and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also filed an application with the SEC to run round-the-clock tokenized U.S. stock trading.