HYPE价格测试85美元支撑位，此前团队代币场外交易达成3.3亿美元协议

Hyperliquid Labs allocates a large number of tokens to a single institutional buyer through over-the-counter transaction, and one-third have been re-pledged

Hyperliquid Labs recently transferred a large number of team-allocated tokens to an undisclosed institutional buyer through a privately negotiated over-the-counter (OTC) transaction. According to online data, one-third of this batch of tokens have returned to pledged status. Although the identity of the buyer has not been disclosed, Hyperliquid Strategies, the hottest speculation in the market, has explicitly denied involvement.

Transaction Details and Market Valuation

Hyperliquid Labs has begun distributing a total of 3.75 million HYPE tokens to the institution's counterparties. At the beginning of the transfer, the market value of these tokens was approximately US$330 million. The team began to release the pledge on September 30, and the seven-day waiting period stipulated in the agreement ended on October 7, and the first batch of transfers was completed on the same day. Currently, HYPE prices are down about 10% from this week's high of about $95, and the current trading price hovers around $86, a position that gathers multiple technical support levels.

• Total OTC trading volume: 3.75 million HYPE
• Market valuation: About US$330 million
• Re-pledged quantity: 1.25 million HYPE
• Proportion of circulating supply: 1.7%

Analysis of capital flow: single buyer behind five addresses

Onchain data platform Onchain Lens records show that the first large-scale move occurred on October 7: 1.875 million HYPEs were evenly distributed among five addresses, with each address receiving 375,000, or approximately US$33 million. Subsequently, Lookonchain tracked the consolidation process of these tokens. In the end, approximately 1.25 million HYPEs (worth nearly US$110.6 million) were put back into pledge. Another 1.875 million HYPEs were concentrated in a single address beginning with 0x8757, and the remaining 625,000 were stored in another separate wallet.

It is worth noting that the five addresses from which funds were received does not mean there are five different buyers. Hyperliquid co-founder iliensinc said before the transfer that the over-the-counter agreement covered the entire allocation amount, and the subsequent token consolidation behavior was consistent with the characteristics of a single counterparty using an intermediary wallet to operate.

Timeline: from release of pledge to re-pledge

• September 30:Hyperliquid Labs began to release 3.75 million HYPEs.
• October 7: The waiting period ended, and 1.875 million HYPEs were transferred to five different addresses.
• October 7 - 8: Tokens were merged, of which 1.25 million HYPE were re-pledged.
• October 8:Hyperliquid Strategies CEO denies being the buyer of the deal.

Impact of OTC Trading on Order Book

场外交易允许双方以约定的价格直接转移代币，因此该笔交易并未进入公共订单簿。对于相当于 HYPE 约 2.2 亿流通供应量中 1.7% 的这一大块筹码而言，这一方式至关重要：如果同等数量的代币在交易所出售，则需要消化日均约 7.73 亿美元的成交量。

需要强调的是，3.3 亿美元仅为市场估值，实际支付价格并未披露。通常大型区块的机构买家会争取折扣。此外，双方均未透露买方是否接受了任何关于转售的限制条款。然而，重新质押的部分带来了一个实际后果：任何质押的 HYPE 都需要经过七天的解锁期才能再次流动，这意味着未来若有人试图转移这 125 万枚代币，将在链上提前一周发出信号。当然，在那一周过去后，买方仍可选择出售。

排除嫌疑与剩余释放计划

此前市场猜测主要集中在 Hyperliquid Strategies，这是一家旨在积累 HYPE 的财库公司。其 CEO David Schamis 于 10 月 8 日否认该公司参与了此次分配，并表示不知道买家是谁。尽管 Lookonchain 推测合并后的地址属于某机构买家，但仅凭钱包活动无法确证其所有者身份。

Some previous ownership schedules had predicted that about 9.9 million HYPEs (nearly US$868 million) would enter circulation in October, but the team actually released only 3.75 million of them. The remaining 6.15 million tokens have not been cancelled or permanently locked, but have not been released this month. The specific release time is not yet clear. In contrast, this release is still significantly larger than that of the earlier batch. According to SEC documents, the ownership list of a HYPE treasury company shows that there were 1.75 million in November 2025, 1.2 million in December, 140,000 in January 2026, and 173,000 in February. Given that core contributors received an allocation of 238 million HYPEs in the initial phase, such releases will continue to occur.

Fundamental support: Strong agreement revenue

The strong demand side explains why institutions are willing to accept these tokens. An annual report filed with the SEC noted that Hyperliquid's net negotiated revenue in 2025 was $857 million. As of August 23, 2026, the platform accounted for 40.1% of the average daily trading volume of perpetual contracts on the chain and 62.5% of open interest contracts.

Technical Analysis: HYPE fell below 200 EMA,$85.25 became the last line of defense

The 4-hour chart shows that HYPE has formed a lower high. HYPE reached a high of $97.91 on September 23, and this week's rally was blocked near $95 before sellers regained dominance. Currently prices are within tight supporting clusters:

• Fibonacci retracement level: The 50% retracement level of the $75.17 to $97.91 rally is at $86.54.
• 200-cycle exponential moving average (EMA):, an average that tracks long-term trends, is currently at US$86.79.

HYPE has fallen below the above two indicators in the current K-line, although there has not been a four-hour close below 200 EMA since the rally began in mid-September. The horizontal support level of US$85.25 is the only key line of defense left.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) read at 32, close to the oversold threshold of 30, and also close to the bottom of the indicator during testing in the same area in late September, when a rally followed. A four-hour close below US$85.25 would clear all gathered support, exposing US$83.86, pointing to the US$80 to US$82 range that was stagnant before the break. If this support holds, US$89 to US$90 will become the main resistance level, as the 50 EMA has turned downward and is next to the 38.2% retracement level. The decline from $95 was accompanied by the lowest turnover rate in the past month, and the 50 EMA is still about $3 higher than the 200 EMA.

Be wary of three potential on-chain sell signals

The following three on-chain events will change the supply landscape and will be publicly visible once they occur:

1. Request for release of re-pledged tokens: For the 1.25 million HYPEs that have been re-pledged, this will put them in the seven-day queue, giving the market a week in advance warning of possible movement.
2. Direct transfer to exchange: 以 0x8757 开头的地址中持有的 187.5 万枚 HYPE 已具备流动性，若直接转入交易所存款钱包，将是更直接的卖出信号。
3. 团队新的解除质押操作：若 Hyperliquid Labs 再次发起解除质押，将启动下一批 615 万枚代币（原预计 10 月释放但未释放部分）的时间锁。