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Following
XRP XRP encountered macro 0.618 Fibonacci resistance at $1.6432 and has been consolidating for two weeks.
XRP has been consolidating below macro 0.618 Fibonacci resistance at $1.6432 for two weeks. This long-term stagnation has changed the technical landscape. Cryptocurrency analyst CasiTrades (@CasiTrades) believes the asset's future path will be more complex.
Current prices are around $1.3992 on the Coinbase 4-hour chart. The recent fall below the 0.5 retracement level at $1.3429 has changed the short-term outlook. Previously, CasiTrades has been closely monitoring this level, using it as a basis for confirming the simple Wave 4 structure.
The $1.10 level comes into focus
CasiTrades points out,"That simple, clear upward path doesn't seem so clear anymore." As the 0.5 retracement level is broken below, the wavelet 2 area falling to about $1.10 becomes a more likely scenario. This region coincides with the macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
There are several Fibonacci support levels between the current price and $1.10, including 0.618 at $1.2589 and 0.65 at $1.2361, which serve as intermediate support during the decline.
Testing of $1.10 will reveal important information
CasiTrades described testing $1.10 as a critical moment that "tells us a lot." If this level is maintained, it will indicate that buyers are defending support and reopen the possibility of a macro trend shift. If you fail to hold, the $0.90 scenario will still exist. The chart shows that the 0.854 level is at $0.8621, which is the lower boundary of macro support. CasiTrades has a personal pay bill at $0.94, which coincides with the 0.618 level at $0.9411.
Two potential entry areas
CasiTrades provides a pragmatic perspective for traders who are concerned about this setting. She suggested that for investors who don't want to miss out on bottom risk completely,$1.10 "may be an area worth considering." She also proposed the option of "superimposing these two levels", which means entering at the same time in the $1.10 and lower $0.94 areas.
The RSI indicator at the bottom of the chart shows that momentum is weakening after rising in August. Current readings are around 56 and 49, indicating that there is neither strong bullish belief nor extreme oversold conditions at this stage.
Big picture
The Elliott wave count on the chart marks recent highs as Wave 1 and the current pullbacks as Wave 2. Successfully holding the $1.10 support will create conditions for the advancement of Wave 3. If the structure is unfolded, the orange trend line above is expected to target above $1.90. This setting is still in the waiting phase until $1.10 is tested.
