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BTC Bitcoin rose about 24% in two weeks, testing the US$82,000 barrier
Bitcoin rose sharply by about 24% in two weeks, hitting the US$82,000 region. However, according to CryptoQuant data, the current rally is not enough to confirm the establishment of a new bull market. The research institute believes that a breakthrough of US$81,700 is a key threshold for confirming that Bitcoin has entered the new bull-bear cycle.
Currently, the price of BTC is around US$77,000, and after recent gains, it fluctuates mainly in the range of US$76,000 to US$82,000.
Why is Bitcoin blocked at US$81,700?
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that although the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic, there is strong resistance above the price. The nearest resistance area lies between $77,100 and $80,200. Data shows that long-term investors have sold as many as 539,000 BTC units in this region during a 30-day cycle this year. Therefore, the company regards this range as the strongest on-chain supply resistance above the current price.
Once it breaks through this area, the next major test for Bitcoin will be the US$81,700 level.
Why is $81,700 so important?
The $81,700 corresponds to Bitcoin's 365-day moving average. According to Moreno, in previous bull markets, Bitcoin usually truly verified the new upward trend after the daily closing price stabilized above the moving average. Therefore, just a brief breakthrough in this level may not be enough. CryptoQuant emphasized that only by achieving a clear and sustained upward breakthrough and stabilizing the region can the arrival of a new bull market be confirmed. If this goal is not achieved, prices may continue to fluctuate within existing ranges.
Critical significance of $83,600 and $88,700
If it successfully breaks through $81,700, Bitcoin's next important resistance level will be $83,600. This level stems from the "3x Metcalfe Rule" channel proposed by CryptoQuant. The model measures the value of Bitcoin by evaluating indicators such as network activity and the number of active addresses. Moreno said that in past cycles, this channel has corresponded to important price levels. For example, when Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,000 in October 2025, the 3x Metcalfe channel was around $138,000; while when Bitcoin first hit $100,000 in December 2024, the 2x channel was close to the price.
The next resistance is at $88,700. This level corresponds to the upper rail in the Trader Realized Price model, which tracks the average cost of active investors. According to Moreno, historically the area was the main area for investors to take profits.
If it falls, what levels can provide support?
In addition to the upward scenario, downside risks also exist. Bitcoin's primary support level is around $70,000, which is in line with the 200-day moving average. The lower $62,000 to $65,000 range is also worth paying attention to. This year, long-term investors purchased approximately 476,000 BTC units in the region. Therefore, CryptoQuant views this range as a potentially important support zone.
Has Bitcoin entered a new bull market?
Although CryptoQuant's overall assessment is biased towards a positive, the company has not yet concluded that a new bull market is fully established. Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin first needs to absorb the supply pressure above and exceed the valuation cap. Therefore,$81,700 is not only a new resistance level, but also a key threshold for judging whether the recent rally can turn into a new bull market.
If the price breaks through this level, the market focus will shift to US$83,600 and US$88,700; otherwise, Bitcoin may fall back into the consolidation range of US$76,000 to US$82,000.
This content is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research.
