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FollowingCLARITY法案最新进展：参议院共和党拒绝民主党反提案，立法前景蒙上阴影
9月15日上午，在参议院原定就加密货币市场结构法案进行首次程序性投票前数小时，参议院共和党人拒绝了民主党提出的关于《CLARITY法案》的反提案。这一拒绝使得谈判陷入僵局。由于双方在涉及总统唐纳德·特朗普加密相关金融活动的关键道德条款上分歧巨大，该法案的后续路径变得高度不确定。
该法案的主要共和党谈判代表、怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯表示，民主党的提议并未在其8月休会前的立场基础上提出任何新内容。“共和党在各个层面都做出了重大让步，包括同意几乎全部《蒂利斯-加拉戈道德框架》，而民主党则寸步不让。”她在声明中表示。她的发言人凯蒂·沃宾顿告诉The Block，民主党的报价与他们几周前的初始立场“完全一致”。
双方分歧焦点：执法权力与道德约束
参议院共和党于周日（9月13日）晚发布了他们称为最终草案的文件，其中纳入了民主党此前要求修改的100多项内容。修订后的法案允许州总检察长对加密货币交易所提起诉讼，并授权司法部执行道德条款。此外，法案还要求公职人员剥离在加密资产中的“重大财务利益”，或将其放入盲信托中管理。
Democrats remain dissatisfied with the terms. Senator Elizabeth Warren pointed out that there are built-in loopholes in the law enforcement structure because the provision ultimately depends on whether the Justice Department decides to take action. She believes that under this framework, the bill cannot prevent Trump from continuing to profit from crypto activities. Politico reported that the Democrats sent a counter-proposal to the Republicans on Monday (the evening of September 14). Virginia Sen. Mark Warner told Semafor that the Democratic position has remained consistent over the past few months. "That's the language Democrats have been seeking for nearly a year." he said.
Meanwhile, banking groups also separately urged lawmakers on September 15 to tighten restrictions on stablecoin interest and incentives. A bipartisan coalition of state attorneys general has warned that the legislation could limit states 'ability to prosecute crypto-related fraud. These additional external pressures add to the complexity of reaching last-minute compromises.
Predicted that the market will significantly reduce the probability of passing
With the news that the negotiations broke down, the forecast market's trend changed sharply. On the morning of September 15, Polymarket traders priced the probability that the CLARITY Act would become law in 2026 at 14%, compared with about 30% just 24 hours ago. On the Kalshi platform, the contract price covering the passage of any eligible cryptocurrency market structure bill before October 1, 2027 dropped to 36% from approximately 53% on the morning of September 14.
The forecast market's expectations for pass rates briefly boosted Monday, when it was hoped that Republican concessions would end months of deadlock. But with the implementation of the Democratic Party's counter-proposal, these increases were completely reversed. As of September 15, Kalshi traders only gave any eligible cryptocurrency market structuring measures a 51% probability that they would become law before January 1, 2028. This is a significant shift towards a longer timetable compared to the optimism seen the day before.
The Senate vote on September 15 was a procedural adjournment motion that required 60 votes to advance. If successful, the bill will still need to go through a second full Senate vote before being submitted to the House of Representatives and finally submitted to the President for signature.
