The price of Shiba Inu fell to US$0.0000538, down 8.6% in a single day: hold or sell?

SHIBA INU Selling Strategy: Tax Considerations and Market Technical Analysis

The short answer is: Whether it is cost-effective to sell SHIBA INU (SHIB) on Wednesday depends on a date that has nothing to do with chart movements for German investors. The key lies in the buying time of a single batch. If the purchase takes less than one year, the sale is a private disposal, and the resulting losses can be used to offset gains of the same nature. If the purchase takes longer than one year, the sale should be tax-free and the resulting loss has no tax value.

Wednesday's price decline made this difference concrete in many portfolios for the first time this year. Anyone who buys a SHIB in the spring or summer is currently holding paper losses, and the tax effect of those losses will disappear within a few months. Anyone who entered earlier has lost that option, and their decisions are based solely on market factors.

SHIBA INU Price Dynamics on October 7, 2026

As of Wednesday afternoon, the trading price of SHIBA INU was $0.0000538, down 8.6% from 24 hours ago (based on market data from CoinGecko). Converted to euros, SHIB was approximately € 0.000048, down 8.0%. As the circulation supply reached 589.2 trillion SHIBs, the market value of all circulation tokens fell to US$3.17 billion.

The day's decline was not an isolated phenomenon, but it was more severe than the overall market. During the same period, Bitcoin fell 4.0% to $82,996; Dogecoin fell 8.1%. Within one week, Shiba INU fell 9.0%; within 30 days, the decline was only 2.8%, indicating that the decline was still in its infancy.

What is eye-catching is the turnover rate data. In the past 24 hours, US$88.2 million worth of SHIB changed hands. Compared with a market value of US$3.17 billion, the daily turnover rate is 2.8%. This means relatively little capital is enough to drive the price discount of 8.6%. For sellers, this means that larger orders can significantly penetrate the order book.

Key Technical Bits and Trend Analysis

The 200-day moving average at $0.0000530 is currently approximately 1.4% below the current price of SHIBA INU. The 200-day moving average is the moving average of closing prices over the past 200 days, and many market participants view it as the rough dividing line between a full uptrend and a burst trend. Based on CoinGecko's daily closing price for the past twelve months, the value on Wednesday was $0.0000530. Therefore, the current price is only slightly above this line.

The short-term moving average has taken the lead in giving in. The average price for 50 days is $0.0000545, and the average price for 20 days is $0.0000576. Shiba INU currently trades below two short-term moving averages and is directly near the long-term moving averages. The next documented level below is the monthly low of $0.0000494 on September 16, 2026, followed by the annual low of $0.0000411 on July 17, 2026. Looking up, it needs to recover the monthly high of $0.0000610 on September 23, 2026, which means an increase of about 13% from current levels.

These figures are not target prices or forecasts. These levels indicate only where trading has actually taken place in the chart over the past twelve months, and where breakouts or falls can be measured.

Tax perspective: Two clocks running in parallel

SHIB's investment decisions are influenced by two clocks: the one-year holding period in your portfolio, and the legislator's schedule.

Article 23 of the Income Tax Act: Holding Period Provisions

The holding period refers to the time span from acquisition to sale of assets in private wealth. For crypto assets, if the holding period exceeds one year, the proceeds are exempt from tax under Article 23 of the German Income Tax Law. If sold within one year, the proceeds are included in taxable income and taxed at the personal tax rate.

Each batch has an independent holding period, and there is no uniform term for the entire portfolio. Anyone who bought SHIB in March, June and September held three positions with different deadlines. Therefore, when making decisions on these loss-making days, the overall position is not important. What matters is which batch is still in the one-year period.

This leads to an asymmetry that many people only notice when they lose money. Tax-free treatment after one year goes both ways: gains remain tax-free, while losses become worthless. Losses arising from batches held for more than one year cannot be entered into the tax form. Then it is a pure paper loss and has no impact on tax.

€1,000 exemption threshold

The €1,000 exemption threshold applicable to all private disposals during the calendar year applies from the 2024 tax year; before then it was €600. The difference from allowances is the key. For exemptions, amounts within the limit are always exempt. As for the exemption threshold, once the limit is reached, all income will become taxable income.

Specifically: If a person earns €999 from sales of other cryptocurrencies during the one-year holding period of the year, no tax is required. If a gain of €1,000 is obtained, the full €1,000 will be subject to tax. The threshold covers not only cryptocurrency gains, but also all private disposals during the year, including gains from selling gold or real estate during that period.

This threshold is important in both ways for SHIBA INU's loss days. Anyone approaching the €1,000 threshold can use the realized SHIB losses to push the annual balance below the limit. Anyone who falls well below this threshold and has no income will receive no tax deductions for the sale.

Loss deduction rules

Realized losses on cryptocurrency sales within one year are not general tax deductions. It is only used to offset other private disposal gains in the same income category. Income from stocks, funds or interest is investment income and is not affected by it.

在实践中，税务局首先形成一年中所有私人处置的余额。如果底部仍有亏损，它并未丢失。它可以向后结转一年，并无限期向前结转至未来年份，每次仍仅针对同类收益。如果某人在后来的年份内在一年期持有期内产生加密货币收益，可以用旧亏损进行抵消。

这就得出了本周三问题的经济核心。只有在同一年存在可抵消的收益，或者向前结转至未来年份可以被现实使用的情况下，出售在税务上才划算。这两点都需要查看个人的交易历史才能回答。

FIFO 原则的影响

FIFO（先进先出）意味着最早购买的代币被视为最先出售。税务机关通常在无法明确分配单个单位时将此顺序应用于加密资产。出售部分 SHIB，从税务角度来看，就是出售最老的部分。

这在亏损日可能会产生与意图相反的后果。任何希望在保留同一钱包中较老批次的同时实现近期亏损的人，会通过部分出售先触及老批次。如果这些老批次已超过一年期，出售则是免税的，不会产生可用的亏损。任何希望清晰分离批次的人需要单独的地址或账户，并提供税务局可追溯的文件记录。

The difficulty of executing a sale also depends on the trading platform. With a daily turnover of US$88.2 million, liquidity is scattered across many platforms. Due to the eight decimal places of SHIB, the impact of bid-ask spreads is much greater than that of large currencies.

Policy Outlook and Future Outlook

Ministry of Finance Draft: Elimination of Holding Period

The ministerial draft is a text issued by ministries to industry bodies and other departments before the Cabinet decision and has not yet become current law. According to professional publication Der Betrieb, the German Ministry of Finance's draft on taxation of privately held crypto assets stipulates that future gains will be taxed as investment income at a rate of 25%, rather than at a personal rate. The one-year holding period for the covered assets will be cancelled.

The same source listed three dates. The substantive rules will take effect on January 1, 2027. Direct withholding taxes by cryptocurrency service providers will be implemented subsequently on January 1, 2028. The deadline for grandfathering (grandfather clause/transitional protection) is December 31, 2026.

For today's SHIB decision-making, direction is more important than specific terms. Under current law, profit-making sales are tax-free once the one-year period has passed. Whether this will apply to future purchases is uncertain.

Transition Period and Cabinet Meetings

根据草案，新制度仅适用于 2026 年 12 月 31 日之后获得的加密资产。在此之前已存在于投资组合中的所有资产，一旦满足一年期要求，将保持免税。税务行业的连续报道指出，2026 年 10 月 14 日是该项事宜提交联邦内阁的计划日期。此时尚未做出决定，直到法律在联邦公报上颁布，截止日期和过渡规则仍可能变动。

另一条平行线索是，正如 cryptoticker 于 2026 年 10 月 6 日报道的那样，加密货币持有期问题将于 10 月 12 日提交给联邦议院请愿委员会。请愿书不约束立法者，但它表明该期限目前正从两个方面进行谈判。

任何今天决定 SHIB 的人都应了解这些日期，但不要高估它们。对于已持有的代币，就目前草案而言没有任何变化。截止日期仅对来年购买的代币相关。

案例分析：有和无一年期持有期的 €1,200 亏损

案例一：假设投资者在 2026 年 5 月以 €4,000 买入 SHIB，今日价值 €2,800。账面亏损为 €1,200。由于购买时间不足一年，出售将构成私人处置。如果该投资者在当年的一年期持有期内已通过其他加密货币销售获得了 €1,500 的收益，则此次出售将余额降至 €300。这使得他们低于 €1,000 的免征额阈值，该项的税务负担完全消失。

案例二：相同金额，不同购买日期。同一投资者在 2025 年 2 月买入 SHIB。一年期已过。以 €1,200 的亏损出售在税务上没有任何意义，因为期限外的亏损无法入账。在这种情况下，决策回归市场，即关注 $0.00000530 的 200 日均线和 $0.00000494 的月度低点。

这些例子故意保持简单，并不替代税务建议。它们清楚地说明了为什么相同的价格波动会导致两个投资组合得出相反的结论。

行动指南：下一步措施

加密货币税务工具记录每一笔 SHIB 批次的购买日期和价格。决策依赖于价格应用程序中未显示的数据：每批次的购买日期、价格和数量，以及每一次 SHIB 兑换为其他代币的交换。每次交换在税务上均被视为出售，并开始新的持有期。如果没有记录，任何人都无法自信地计算余额或阈值。

投资组合跟踪器和税务程序从交易所账户和钱包地址读取交易历史，并按 FIFO 分配。查看加密货币税务工具的比较可知，哪些提供商重现了德国常用的计算方法，哪些仅提供收益概览。那里重要的不是功能范围，而是生成的报告是否可以提交给税务局。

无论使用何种工具，有一条简单的规则：记录必须保存至评估期结束。明年关闭的交易所账户会将历史记录随之带走。

SHIBA INU Price: Your next three steps

1. Organize purchase dates: List each SHIB batch, its date, quantity and purchase price, and mark which ones look younger today than one year. Only those eligible for tax losses. Anyone without a ready-made history can find a program to reconstruct history from exchanges and wallets.
2. Compare the annual balance to the exemption threshold: Add the gains and losses on all private disposals for the year. If the balance exceeds €1,000, the realized loss can reduce the entire tax burden for this item. Anyone selling for this reason should be aware of the fees and trading spreads on the trading platform; a comparison list of cryptocurrency exchanges provides cost models.
3. Set key prices and manage custody: Any holding position should set in advance what will happen if the 200-day moving average of $0.0000530 and the monthly low of $0.0000494 are below. Any long-term holder would be better off transferring the balance from the exchange to his own custody; a hardware wallet comparison shows the difference between backup and restore.

(As of October 7, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)