Bitwise首席投资官在CLARITY投票后调整前景展望

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Bitwise首席投资官马特·霍根：CLARITY法案受挫仅为“减速带”，而非“路障”

在参议院于9月15日未能推进加密市场结构法案后，比特币价格从7月的57,950美元反弹至80,000美元以上。Bitwise首席投资官马特·霍根（Matt Hougan）据此修正了对《CLARITY法案》受挫的看法。

观点转变：从“漫长寒冬”到“短暂颠簸”

此前，霍根曾将该立法比作加密界的“普苏塔尼菲尔”（一种预测天气的土拨鼠形象），若国会未能完成立法，他预测市场将面临更长的低迷期。然而，在回顾比特币的价格走势以及金融部门持续推出相关产品后，他现在将参议院的挫折描述为“减速带，而非路障”。

根据霍根在9月16日的CIO备忘录，他不再认为在立法停滞后会出现另外六周艰难的交易局面。尽管他预计当前的加密牛市可能延续，但这仍被视为一种投资展望，而非确定的市场结果。

数据支撑：立法预期下降与币价上涨背离

霍根立场的转变主要基于立法预期恶化期间比特币的表现。Bitwise数据显示，比特币在7月1日触及约57,950美元的低位，随后在9月4日攀升至80,000美元以上。同期，Polymarket上关于《CLARITY法案》在2026年成为法律的定价概率从39%降至18%。

Hogan pointed out that the reverse trend weakened his earlier assumption that the continuation of market recovery required legislation. Although the price relationship does not prove that a decline in the odds of legislation has caused Bitcoin to rise, and Bitwise does not use it as evidence of future performance, it does change its view of the need for legislation.

Actions by Wall Street Institutions: Without Waiting for Legislation

To support his view that large financial institutions start building crypto products without waiting for market structure legislation, Hogan cited a number of institutional developments:

Launch of Robinhood Chain: On July 1, Robinhood launched the public main network "Robinhood Chain". The company describes the network as a permission-free Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 designed for financial services and tokenized assets. Its second-quarter regulatory documents confirmed that the chain was transferred from the public test network in February to the main network in July. At the same time, Robinhood has launched stock tokens through its wallet to qualified users in more than 120 countries around the world. As of September, approximately 200 stock tokens are available.
Morgan Stanley's Solana and Ether products: At the time of Hogan's memorandum, Morgan Stanley's Solana products were beyond the application stage. The SEC announced the effective registration of the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust on July 23, and Morgan Stanley Investment Management officially launched MSOL (Solana) and MSSE (Ether) exchange-traded products on NYSE Arca on July 28. These products charge a management fee of 0.14% and incorporate pledge functions through structural design.
DTCC's tokenization practice: 7月15日，存托信托与结算公司（DTCC）处理了使用证券转换成的DTC代币化资产的实时生产交易。参与此次生产事件的约有40家公司，包括贝莱德、摩根大通和高盛等金融机构。此举旨在为其计划于2026年10月推出的代币化服务做准备。

监管现状：SEC与CFTC可在现有权限下继续规则制定

霍根的第二个论点是，SEC和CFTC目前拥有的监管权力足以推动加密市场发展。他认为两家机构当前的领导层对加密市场持支持态度，这给企业带来了信心。不过，SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）此前曾表示，虽然机构规则可行，但国会立法仍是首选，因为行政规则可能会随领导层更替而改变，立法能提供更持久的法律保障。

尽管如此，SEC已启动自身的规则制定进程。其于8月18日发布的《加密资产法规》提案，旨在为涉及加密资产的投资合同发行提供定制豁免，并建立条件性安全港机制。该提案公众评论期至10月20日结束，尚未成为最终规则。

CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格（Michael Selig）在参议院投票后也表达了类似立场。他表示，机构正利用现有法定权力，“锁定目标并准备交付新金融前沿的规则”。CFTC早在3月就成立了创新工作组，负责协调与SEC的合作，并在委员会现有授权范围内开发相关规则。

霍根承认，机构权限仍有局限。只有国会才能赋予CFTC《CLARITY法案》所设想的全额现货市场管辖权。行政规则可能面临法院挑战，也可能被未来的委员会修改或撤销，而立法则能创造不同层级的法定永久性。