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BTC 
XRP 尽管《CLARITY法案》在参议院受阻，比特币仍可能延续其上行轨迹
尽管《CLARITY法案》（明确法）在参议院遭遇阻碍，比特币极有可能继续维持其既定的走势。随着 cloture（终结辩论）程序的失败，该法案在今年通过的概率在 Polymarket 上从 15% 骤降至 5%。与此同时，比特币价格回落至 75,000 美元附近，但两者之间并未建立直接的联系。
这一政治挫折背后呈现出一种悖论：当华盛顿仍在试图厘清加密货币市场的监管规则时，比特币在美国已经取得了多项主要的监管成就。
核心要点
- 《CLARITY法案》在美国参议院遭遇严重挫折。
- 其在今年通过的概率在 Polymarket 上从 15% 下降至 5%。
- 比特币价格回落至 75,000 美元，但与投票结果未确立因果关系。
- 比特币在美国已享有若干重大监管成果。
- 从长远来看，《CLARITY法案》主要旨在巩固比特币已有的监管地位。
比特币已具备明确的监管地位
《CLARITY法案》旨在为加密市场建立联邦级规则，划分证券交易委员会（SEC）与商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）对不同代币的管辖权，并明确银行机构和交易所的合规活动范围。然而，在美国，比特币已被视为大宗商品，且比特币现货 ETF 已于 2024 年 1 月获得批准。去年三月，SEC 和 CFTC 再次确认了其作为大宗商品的地位。
自此以来，行业内的许多重要人物认为，该法案的通过并非比特币成功的必要条件。Michael Saylor 阐明了这一立场：“比特币不需要《CLARITY法案》，需要的是美国。”他补充道：“无论是否有立法，比特币都将取得成功。”Arthur Hayes 也指出：“从 2009 年至今，比特币从未需要过《CLARITY法案》，未来也不需要。”Jake Chervinsky 则认为，“即使没有《CLARITY法案》，加密生态系统也能发展良好”，并估计 SEC 和 CFTC 已拥有必要的团队和权限。
因此，人们提出的主要论点在于淡化《CLARITY法案》对比特币的即时影响：
- 比特币已获得美国监管机构的大宗商品地位；
- 自 2024 年 1 月起，比特币 ETF 已获授权，提供了受监管的 BTC 访问渠道；
- SEC 和 CFTC 在 2026 年 3 月确认了这一地位；
- 尽管旨在监管加密市场，但该文本并未直接提及比特币；
- The price of BTC is not mechanically linked to the probability of passage of the text this year, which suggests that it should not be regarded as a purely price driver.
Banking supervision rules may have a stronger impact on demand
The nature of the discussion changed when it turned to the banking industry. The CLARITY Act may legally establish a bank's ability to hold customers 'bitcoins and provide certain credit, payment or derivative services. However, it does not immediately eliminate one of the main obstacles to financial institutions 'direct exposure to Bitcoin risks: capital requirements.
According to Basel Global Standards, a bank must hold at least US$1 million in capital to cover US$1 million in Bitcoin exposure. The United States has not yet adopted the rule, and its regulators have not finalized their own capital requirements. Favorable developments in this area will have a greater impact on agency demand for BTC than the CLARITY Act. Even if the bill is passed this year, it will not have an immediate effect. Most of its provisions will not take effect until 360 days after promulgation, which will delay many practical changes until the end of 2027.
The impact of this text is mainly evident in the long term
The benefits of the CLARITY Act may not be as significant in the short term as long-term defensive. By translating certain regulatory achievements into legislative provisions, it could make the challenge more difficult-especially if the November 2028 presidential election produces a government that adopts policies that are less friendly to bitcoin. The text will also protect Bitcoin developers, mining companies and dormant BTC held in self-custody.
Its impact will also extend beyond Bitcoin. Assets such as XRP may benefit more from a stable regulatory framework, and some of the money may go to altcoins rather than BTC. After the vote failed, Willy Woo observed different dynamics between the U.S. market and the offshore market: "I saw Americans selling on Coinbase because of the failure of the CLARITY Act. At the same time, there continues to be accumulation in the globally dominant offshore market (on Binance). bullish."
This divergence summarizes the limitations of interpreting the issue from a U.S. perspective alone. Bitcoin remains a global asset. Washington can ensure its regulatory environment, but the CLARITY Act alone is neither a condition nor a guarantee for a new round of increases.
