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Following金价每盎司约4,350美元，ETF持仓与价格出现背离
在经历相对平静的一周后，金价维持在每盎司约4,350美元的水平。尽管投资者对贵金属的兴趣重新升温，但整体市场波动较小。虽然黄金难以确立令人信服的复苏态势，但投资者持续增持黄金支持的交易所交易基金（ETF）。
Kobeissi Letter指出，ETF持仓量与实物黄金价格之间出现了日益明显的背离，这引发了黄金最终可能重返5,000美元上方的可能性。
金价承压之际，黄金ETF持仓量上升
据Kobeissi Letter报道，彭博追踪的黄金ETF持仓量已攀升至约1亿盎司，接近至少九个月来的最高水平。自7月低点以来，持仓量增加了400多万盎司，收复了4月至7月期间记录的跌幅。
报告还指出，黄金支持型ETF连续八个交易日出现资金流入，这是自2025年10月以来最长的连续流入记录。世界黄金协会的数据也支撑了这一更广泛的需求趋势。其9月9日的报告显示，全球实物支持的黄金ETF在8月份吸引了180亿美元的资金，使其持仓量达到创纪录的4,189吨。
These data suggest that despite resistance to gold prices, investment demand remains strong. However, ETF inflows are only one component of the gold market. Factors such as futures positions, central bank purchases, jewelry demand, interest rates and currency movements will all affect gold prices.
Gold price chart reveals abnormal divergences
Kobeissi Letter's chart compares gold ETF holdings (orange line) with spot gold prices (white line). From March to mid-August, these two curves usually move in the same direction.
Source: X/@KobeissiLetter
Both fell during the summer, with ETF holdings approaching 96 million ounces in July, while gold prices falling to around $3,900. This relationship began to change in mid-August. ETF holdings rebounded rapidly, climbing from about 97 million ounces to nearly 100 million ounces in September. Gold initially followed the recovery, rising towards $4,800, but then changed direction.
The latest section of thechart clearly shows this divergence: ETF holdings continue to climb to previous highs, while gold prices retreat to the US$4,350 - 4,400 range. This is the core basis for Kobeissi Letter's bullish view. If gold prices eventually catch up with the growth in ETF holdings, the publication believes gold is expected to exceed $5,000 in the next few months. At the current price of about $4,350, reaching $5,000 would require a rise of about 15%.
尽管如此，该图表并不能证明黄金必须跟随ETF持仓量走高。两条线使用不同的垂直刻度，且它们的历史关系并非预测公式。通过放缓ETF买入或持仓量下降来缩小背离，而非金价反弹，也是可能的。
金价展望：5,000美元会是下一个目标吗？
黄金ETF需求的不断增长提供了一个潜在的支持性背景，但价格仍需克服若干技术和宏观经济障碍。
4,400–4,500美元区域是首先要关注的区域。在该区域上方实现持续复苏，将使4,600–4,800美元区间重新受到关注，随后是具有重要心理意义的5,000美元关口。另一方面，4,300美元是一个即时参考点，而更深的下跌可能使4,000–4,100美元区间再次成为焦点。当然，这些都是近似的价格区间。
利率仍是另一个重要考量因素。较高的债券收益率会增加持有无收益黄金的机会成本，而强势美元会使其他货币买家购买黄金的成本更高。这些压力在美联储9月决议前的黄金市场报告中已有所体现。
结论是，黄金ETF投资者正在积极买入，但金价尚未反映出这种需求。4,500美元上方的复苏将改善短期前景，而迈向5,000美元仍是一个有条件的情景，而非ETF资金流入的必然结果。
