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XRP Market winds shift: The crypto market shifts from "Bitcoin season" to "Altcoin season"
On-chain data analysis agency Glassnode reported this week that its altcoin cycle signal has shifted from "bitcoin-dominated season" to "altcoin-dominated season." The shift came after a rally in August that mainly pushed up Bitcoin prices, while altcoins performed relatively lackluster; market participation has now expanded significantly.
Signal indicator reveals expansion in market breadth
This signal from Glassnode is evaluated by comparing Bitcoin's performance with the top 250 altcoins (excluding stablecoins) combinations weighted by market capitalization. A higher reading usually means that altcoins are performing better than Bitcoin, while a lower reading indicates Bitcoin is in a leading position.
In addition, the Bitcoin price line in the chart changes color based on the current market regime (status/trend): orange represents the "Bitcoin Season" and blue represents the "Altcoin Season". Before mid-August, although major cryptocurrencies continued to rise and the signal remained orange, the signal officially turned blue today as the Bitcoin price broke through the $87,000 mark.
Glassnode pointed out in its analysis: "In the first wave of gains in August, altcoins performed relatively smoothly, while Bitcoin moved forward alone. However, today's rise has ignited the overall vitality of the altcoin market."
Technical Analysis and Price Dynamics
该分析平台在另一篇帖子中提到，比特币交易价格高于“真实市场均值”和短期持有者成本基础。历史上，当价格维持在上述水平之上时，这通常标志着持续的上升趋势。
从艾略特波浪理论来看，比特币正接近第五浪的目标位。日级相对强弱指数（RSI）出现价格背离，分析师Darkfost表示，这种形态可能预示着资产在进一步上涨前，会先回调至74,500美元附近。
截至发稿时，比特币交易价格已超过85,000美元，24小时内上涨5%，周涨幅超过10%。周一比特币首次触及87,000美元关口，这也是自1月底以来的首次。以太坊（ETH）在一周内也实现了10%的涨幅，突破了2,700美元大关。
在其他币种方面，BNB自1月下旬以来首次突破800美元；XRP从约1.40美元跃升至1.50美元以上；Dogecoin则以超过15%的24小时涨幅领跑大型山寨币。这些积极表现推动总市值环比上涨3.6%，突破3万亿美元大关（据CoinGecko数据），其中比特币的市场份额占比为57%。
强劲反弹背后的波折一周
正如此前报道，上周宏观逆风不断，包括参议院投票否决推进《CLARITY法案》以及美联储自2023年7月以来首次加息。这些因素曾将比特币打压至75,000美元附近的数周低点，随后比特币收复了50周移动平均线，并重新攀升至80,000美元上方。
与此同时，以太坊突破2,700美元引发了分歧。分析师DANNY对此持怀疑态度，将其称为“陷阱”，并预期在真正突破之前，价格可能会滑落至1,500美元。另一方面，Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，本月具备引发“剧烈上涨”的所有要素，油价降温且利率表现稳健。
