Citrini Research: Top 5 DeFi tokens worth watching

Citrini Research 指出五类 DeFi 代币有望从资产代币化中受益

该机构目前披露的最大持仓并未包含在这五只代币之中。Citrini 警告称，协议的增长并不会自动惠及所有代币持有者。这五只代币的价格均低于近期高点。

10月8日，Citrini Research 发布了一份题为《Breaking The Wall》的79页报告，主张“代币化”与“去中心化金融（DeFi）”正逐渐成为由人工智能驱动的金融代理人的结算层。这家由 James van Geelen 创立、拥有超过26万 Substack 订阅者的研究机构，将 Ondo Finance (ONDO)、Aave (AAVE)、Uniswap (UNI)、ether.fi (ETHFI) 和 Pendle (PENDLE) 列为有望从这一转变中收取费用的协议。

其核心论点基于收入来源以及代币赋予持有者的权利。报告明确指出，更广泛的区块链使用并不必然提升每一种硬币的价值。在所有五只代币中，自报告发布前后几天内，它们的价格均已从近期高点回落。因此，有必要逐个项目审视研究逻辑与市场走势之间的差距。

为何 Citrini 青睐收益流而排除比特币

报告的公开介绍部分描述了软件代理的功能：在获得用户授权后，这些代理可以代为管理储蓄、再融资贷款并挑选投资机会。当前的金融基础设施依赖中介且周末休市，这与永不休眠的软件需求极不匹配。Citrini 以2026年3月为例，当时因伊朗冲突升级导致市场在周末关闭，但交易员利用 Hyperliquid 在常规场所关闭期间对原油期货建立头寸。尽管加密货币衍生品与大宗商品本身是不同的工具，但这一事件展示了市场对全天候开放的需求。

基于此，该机构构建了一个包含15种代币的模型投资组合。上述五只主要代币占该组合的29%。Derive、Lighter 和 ether.fi 权重最大，各占10%，且列表中不包含直接的比特币头寸。需要注意的是，这些都是目标权重，尚无证据表明已完成实际购买。

This allocation of weights follows a simple test: a token is selected only if its holder has a claim on fees charged by the agreement through fee-sharing, buy-back, or destruction. If a busy exchange's governance token fails to receive any transaction fees, it will be excluded for failing the test no matter how fast its trading volume grows. The same logic explains why Citrini doesn't believe that Bitcoin or Ethereum will necessarily hit new highs as more assets go online.

Ondo: Access tokenized funds to DTCC and BlackRock strategies

Ondo is most directly linked to this thesis and has the most recent dynamics. On September 16, its Oasis Pro Markets division became the first tokenization platform to be included in the DTCC Fund/SERV network, which handles more than 85% of U.S. mutual fund trading activity. Eight days later, the company launched Intelligent Portfolio, a tokenized version of three strategies developed by BlackRock for qualified investors outside the United States. On October 5, Ondo Private Markets followed suit and issued notes linked to the performance of an unlisted artificial intelligence company. Buyers receive structured exposure, with equity weaker than direct ownership.

Technically, after hitting a high of about $0.60 at the end of September, ONDO is currently trading around $0.48, a drop of about one-fifth. Prices remain above the 50-day moving averages ($0.434) and 200-day moving averages ($0.393), and the shorter cycle moving average crossed the longer cycle moving average last month, which is usually a sign that an upward trend is established. Buyers returned after this week's pullback stopped falling around $0.44. The RSI indicator is 54, indicating that neither long nor short party has absolute control. If the daily line closes below US$0.434, the 200-day moving average will be a key test; to resume the upward trend, it will need to break through the resistance range of US$0.51 to US$0.52, where the token has been blocked previously.

Aave: US$34 billion in deposits and earnings performance

Aave provides solid data support. As of the end of September, its own dashboard showed deposits of approximately US$34 billion, outstanding loans of US$13.3 billion, 2026-date revenue of US$83.3 million, and net income of US$26.2 million. It should be emphasized that these are agreement-level accounting data and are not equivalent to cash paid to AAVE holders.

It is reported that its latest lending market deposits have exceeded US$1 billion. Ether.fi now routes in-app combined lending to Aave, making Aave the back-end infrastructure behind other consumer-grade products.

Judging from the chart, AAVE's performance is the strongest among the five tokens. The current trading price is around $168, down from a high of near $185 in early October, but well above the low of below $60 in June. The 50-day moving average ($143.30) is already above the 200-day moving average ($121.74), and prices remain within a safety margin of 17% above the fast moving average. The RSI has cooled from an overheated area above 70 to 58, which means that the uptrend has not been disrupted, but has just escaped overbought conditions. Buyers defended the $160 level in the latest pullback. If this level is lost, the downward path will point to US$143; if it can close above US$185, the increase will be further expanded.

Uniswap: Fee switches give UNI unprecedented benefits

For many years, UNI has been the standard case for "governing token-bound profitable exchanges without revenue sharing." However, in December 2025, the governance approved the agreement fee proposal, accompanied by the destruction of 100 million UNIs. More than 125 million tokens voted in favor, with only 742 votes against. Subsequent proposals aim to extend fee collection to selected Uniswap v4 pools and Robinhood Chain. Third-party chain tracking data shows that the destruction volume of UNI in a single day is about 38,000 pieces, but this figure has not been independently confirmed.

The market emerged several months after the vote, and then partially retreated. UNI climbed from below $2.50 in June to nearly $11 at the end of September, then lost about a third of its value in two weeks. The current trading price is $7.33, right above the 50-day moving average of $7.30. Trading volume increased during the decline. The RSI dropped to 41, below its own average of 58, indicating that sellers have gained the upper hand in recent trading days. If the $7.30 area falls, the next visible support level is the $6 area where tokens consolidated in early September, while the 200-day moving average is far away from $5.23. Restoring a firm footing at $8 would be the first sign that the correction is over.

Ether.fi: Transition from pledge to stablecoin

On October 6, Ether.fi announced plans to launch a U.S. dollar stablecoin ether.fi USD, with Erena managing reserves. Ethena said the platform currently holds more than US$300 million in stablecoin deposits. This step expands on its construction that began in August and September, when it introduced tokenized stocks, precious metals, a wider range of fiat payment options, and programmatic ETHFI buybacks. The agreement has also been withdrawing weETH from EigenLayer's re-pledge, the model it was originally launched. Its status in the tokenization story is not as direct as Ondo, depending on which products users ultimately adopt.

技术面上，ETHFI 自8月下旬以来一直运行在一个上升通道内，当前0.688美元的价格位于通道下沿。50日均线（0.648美元）紧贴其下，形成重叠支撑区。虽然本周价格短暂跌破该区域后收回，但 RSI 处于49的中性水平。若日线收于0.648美元下方，通道将被打破，暴露出0.555美元的200日均线。守住该位置可使0.75美元的中间线和近期0.82美元的高点保持可达。

Pendle：扩展至资金费率交易，代币测试2.00美元关口

Pendle 允许用户将资产拆分为本金和未来收益，并分别交易两者。其 Boros 产品将此概念应用于永续合约的资金费率，为交易者提供了一种对冲或投机杠杆持仓成本的方式。9月，该协议在 Robinhood Chain 上开设了第一个收益市场，sPENDLE 升级改变了持有者参与协议经济的方式。10月8日在 TOKEN2049 上提出了新策略，但其上线状态尚未确认。

PENDLE 是五只代币中唯一交易在50日均线之下的。代币从9月中旬的2.79美元跌至2.10美元，跌幅约四分之一，本周的下滑使其跌破2.16美元的均线。长期趋势目前保持完好，因为200日均线位于较低的1.85美元，且较快周期均线在9月初已穿越后者。RSI为40，远低于其自身平均值52，表明过去一周卖方主导节奏。买家在10月8日的2.00美元附近介入。若日线收于该水平之下，在1.85美元之前几乎没有支撑；若能回到2.16美元上方，则代币将重回9月份的趋势一侧。

关键技术位总结

以上水平读取自2026年10月9日的 Binance 图表。技术指标描述过去的价格走势，并非预测。

未来 DeFi 代币面临的变化

The supply of tokenized assets grew faster than the reported record rate. Securitize announced its NYSE listed shares on Solana and Avalanche the same day it went public in July. Citibank researchers predicted in June that the benchmark size of the monetized asset market would be US$5.5 trillion by the 2030s, compared with approximately US$17 billion currently. The scope of this forecast covers specific asset classes and should not be regarded as a figure for the entire crypto market.

Each of these assets can be deposited in Aave as collateral or traded on Uniswap, while the revenue-producing assets can be split and priced on Pendle. Whether this can be achieved depends on the obstacles Citrini itself lists: the dispersion of liquidity among incompatible networks, regulatory rules that restrict who can hold tokenized securities, and smart contracts or custody failures that can deter institutions. Autonomous agents add further requirements because they require reliable identity and authorization controls before funds can be moved on a large scale.

Citrini's own stock basket provides a sense of proportion. It reportedly gave Securitize a 20% weighting, while Circle and Coinbase each had 18%, but the company pointed out that Robinhood Chain generated fees at an annualized rate of approximately $30 million in early October, while Robinhood generated total revenue of $1.31 billion in the second quarter alone. In the face of the core business of listed company brokers, on-chain activities are still very small. For the five tokens, the more recent challenges are Uniswap's vote to extend fees to the v4 pool and Robinhood Chain, and the ether.fi stablecoin issue terms, both of which will show how much agreement revenue flows to holders.