Starknet (STRK) after soaring 68%: unlocking on October 15 has little impact

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Starknet (STRK) unlocking analysis on October 15: The unlocking volume only accounted for 2% of the average daily turnover.

At noon on Friday, the trading price of Starknet (STRK) was US$0.0721, an increase of 68.4% in the past seven days. According to StarkWare's token release plan, the next monthly unlock batch will be ushered in on October 15:127 million STRKs. At current prices, the value of these tokens is approximately US$9.15 million, accounting for 1.7% of the circulation supply. Compared with the average daily turnover of approximately US$470 million, this batch of unlocking volume accounts for approximately 2% of the single-day trading volume, which is the minimum unlocking scale encountered in our current series of calculations.

Therefore, the core question is whether this date will have a substantial upward or downward effect on prices. Anyone holding a STRK or considering entering needs to clarify three key points: the actual size of the amount unlocked, how it relates to liquidity, and whether the "Layer 1" narrative driving the rally has been settled. These three points can be verified through public data, and there is no need for paid tracking tools. You only need to focus on the price, circulation supply and daily turnover of the platform.

What happens to STRK on October 15

StarkWare's unlocking plan stipulates that 1.27% of the original total supply of tokens will be released on the 15th of each month. The total supply of STRK is 10 billion coins, and 1.27% is exactly 127 million coins. According to the announced plan, the recipients of these tokens are early contributors and investors, and the general public is not covered by unlocking. This release cycle will last until March 15, 2027.

Vesting period It refers to extending the allocation of tokens over time: tokens already exist, but are locked in through contracts or technical methods and gradually released in fixed steps. Therefore, unlocking does not create new tokens, but makes existing tokens tradeable for the first time. This is in stark contrast to the inflation mechanism that increases total supply through mining or pledge rewards.

Currently, the circulating supply of STRK is approximately 7.42 billion units. As a result, approximately 2.58 billion tokens are still locked up, accounting for 25.8% of the total supply. Of this remaining portion, six monthly unlocks in the six months ending March 2027 totaled 762 million STRK units, accounting for 10.3% of current circulating supply. Locked coins outside this range follow other deadlines and continue to be released after the end of this series.

Pre-unlock rebound: 68% gain in seven days

STRK has gained 24.6% in the past 24 hours, 68.4% in seven days, and 126.8% in 30 days. The market value reached US$535 million, ranking 112th. It's not just the price that's eye-catching, but the volume: a single-day turnover of US$470 million, which means that almost 88% of tokens changed hands within 24 hours. This reading suggests short-term speculation rather than a calm reconfiguration.

Despite the rebound, there is still huge upside. Its all-time high of $4.41 occurred on February 20, 2024, shortly after the airdrop; the current price is down 98.4% from its all-time high. From another perspective, STRK's price has more than tripled since its August 18 low of $0.0222. To put current trends in the background, both numbers are indispensable: a 68% rise from a seven-week low is visually and psychologically different from a 68% rise from an annual high.

StarkWare's revised unlock plan: 1.27% per month

The current plan is not the first version. In the initial version, approximately 1.3 billion tokens (approximately 13% of the total supply) will be released in one go on April 15, 2024. After criticism from the community, StarkWare revised its plan in February 2024, dividing it into two phases: first, from April 2024 to March 15, 2025, with 0.64%(64 million pieces) released per month; followed by the next 24 months, with 1.27%(127 million pieces) released per month.

One of the key points is: October 15 is the 20th node in a two-and-a-half-year series that has remained unchanged since March 2025. Reacting to data known as early as February 2024 is not reacting to news. As such, the magnitude of the quantity is worth examining more than the date itself.

Unlocks vs. Daily Average Turnover: $9.15 million vs.$470 million

单纯的代币数量毫无意义。1.27亿枚代币听起来很多，但只要市场能够吸收，它们就不会形成抛压。衡量指标是解锁代币的美元价值与日均成交额的比率。对于STRK而言，915万美元对阵4.7亿美元的成交额，占比为1.95%。从算术上看，整个解锁批次仅相当于正常交易约28分钟的成交量。

该计算故意假设了最坏情况，即所有解锁代币都在第一天卖出。在实践中，这种情况很少发生，因为分配给贡献者和投资者的代币通常会在数周内持有或逐步减持。尽管如此，作为上限参考，单日交易量的2%上限对于STRK来说根本不成问题。任何人将抛压视为主要风险，都忽略了真正的风险：即成交额几乎等同于整个市值，且推动反弹的理由尚无决策支持。每日成交额在不同平台上分布不均，关键在于你所在交易的平台的成交额。

自行核算代币数量：操作指南

你需要三个数值，它们均出现在每个大型行情页面上：当前价格、流通供应量和过去24小时的成交额。再加上项目公布计划中的解锁比例。计算过程仅需两行：

解锁批次的美元价值：代币数量乘以价格。对于STRK，即1.27亿乘以0.0721美元，等于915万美元。
与流动性的比率：The value of the US dollar divided by the average daily turnover. Divide $9.15 million by $470 million to get 1.95%.
to open positions: Number of tokens divided by the amount of circulating supply. Divide 127 million by 7.42 billion to get 1.7%.

According to the rule of thumb in this series of cases: unlocking below about 10% of the average daily turnover belongs to market noise; when it exceeds the entire average daily turnover, it becomes an independent topic; starting from several average daily turnover, it dominates the price trend around the date. STRK is at the lowest end of the scale with less than 2%. At this point, tools that can combine circulating supply and unlocking dates with prices can help.

Different token numbers on the same date: Where does the gap come from

Anyone who studies this date will encounter different data. The reasons are clear: Some services calculate percentages based on total supply of 10 billion, some are based on circulating supply of 7.42 billion, and still others combine multiple deadlines within a month into one line. Therefore, the same ratio will produce three different token quantities without any calculation errors by either party.

So, apply the same short test to any unlock data you see: divide the number of tokens by the total supply to see if you can get an integer percentage that appears in the project plan. For 127 million and 10 billion, the result is an accurate 1.27%, which appears in the February 2024 revision. If the results are different, it means that the service uses a different base or includes tokens that do not belong to the batch. The proportions in the project plan are more reliable than the number of tokens on the overview page.

Eli Ben-Sasson's Layer 1 advancement: Target quantum resistance

The opportunity for this rebound came from a consideration by StarkWare chief Eli Ben-Sasson, not an unlock date. He proposed transforming Starknet from Layer 2 on Ethereum to a separate chain. Layer 2 is the second layer that packages and anchors transactions outside the main chain, thereby inheriting the main chain's security assumptions and schedules. Layer 1 is an independent chain that has a set of independent validators and formulates its own rules.

Ben-Sasson's reasoning focuses on cryptography: With advances in quantum computers and artificial intelligence, current security assumptions may be threatened. As an independent chain, Starknet can make cryptographic changes when deemed necessary without having to wait for Ethereum's roadmap. He sets achieving quantum resistance by 2027 as his goal; according to information currently communicated, Ethereum is working towards its 2029 goal.

From Layer 2 to Independent Chain: Verifier, Security and Pending Issues

This is all undecided. In a state of public record, this is only a consideration that the company is reviewing; in the absence of formal governance proposals and votes, the process leading to this path is also open. Anyone who justifies a backlash with the phrase "switch is done" is actually justifying something that doesn't yet exist.

技术上，这一步将是重大的。独立链需要自己的验证者集合、针对这些验证者的激励机制以及自身的安全基础；借用的主链安全将不复存在。同时，对主链时间表的依赖也会消失。这笔交易是否划算是一个判断而非计算，不会在一天内解决。对于未来几个月而言，这意味着价格在运行一种预期，其实现取决于尚未做出的决策，而其实施则需要数年。

你可以在两个公开的地方观察此事：项目的治理论坛（真正的提案会首先在这里出现）和公司的技术出版物。只要这些地方没有动静，该想法就仍属于提出者的声明，在每次价格评估中都应被视为此类声明。

反向检查：CARV、deBridge和Allora的相同度量

STRK解锁量的微小程度在与近期计算的案例对比中显现出来。在CARV案例中，10月10日的3880万枚代币对应日均成交额130万美元（基于10月4日的计算）。在deBridge案例中，10月17日的6.18亿DBR对应约10天的成交额和10.4%的流通供应量（基于10月5日的计算）。而在Allora案例中，11月11日到期的1.602亿ALLO，在10月8日的计算中占当时流通供应量的62.8%。

与这三个案例相比，STRK仅占流通供应量的1.7%和日均成交额的2%。相同类型的日期，相同的度量标准，结果相差三十倍。这就是为什么标题中的代币数量毫无用处：1.27亿虽然比3880万大，但后者仍然是更沉重的压力案例。

德国持有人的23条EStG持有期与解锁日期：立场

在税务方面，项目的解锁日期与你个人的持有期无关。决定因素是你购买的时间。根据现行法律，如果买卖之间间隔超过一年，加密货币资产的出售收益作为个人处置交易免征所得税（依据德国收入税法第23条）。如果在一年内出售，则适用你的个人所得税税率，且所有个人处置交易每年的免税额度为1000欧元。一旦超过此额度，全部收益均需纳税，超过阈值的部分不单独处理。

在实践中，面对此类反弹：在价格上涨七天后出售，几乎总是落在一年期内，因此需要纳税；而如果是从2025年夏季持有的资产，则期限已过。然而，持有期是否会保持不变尚不确定。联邦议院于10月9日以445票对132票否决了其废除提议。对你而言，这意味着只有一点：无论最终适用何种规则，都要以可存档的形式保存你的买卖数据。

这也是一个问题：你的平台是否列出STRK，以及它受谁的监管。自欧洲MiCA法规生效以来，面向欧洲经济区客户的提供商需要获得授权。购买前应向提供商核实交易对和授权情况，因为这两者可能会发生变化。