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BTC Blockchain.com applies for a U.S. regulatory license to enter the forecasting market field
Cryptocurrency platform Blockchain.com is trying to join the boom in the U.S. forecasting market. The company told CNBC it had applied for a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to provide event contracts and cryptocurrency derivatives services to U.S. customers.
Dual license application builds a complete compliance system
According to the company, Blockchain.com has submitted applications for two qualifications: a "Designated Contract Market"(DCM) license, which will allow it to operate as an event contract futures exchange; and a "Futures Commission Broker"(FCM) license, which allows it to act as a derivatives broker. The two approvals will allow Blockchain.com to establish a regulated market in the United States that serves both retail investors and institutional traders.
This move means that the company will take back the business currently provided only through overseas partners to internal operations. This year, Blockchain.com began to provide predictive market services to some international customers through a partnership with Polymarket, and provided perpetual contract trading through the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. If it obtains a CFTC license, it will no longer rely on third-party forwarding, but will have its own independent event contract trading platform.
Peter Smith, CEO and co-founder of, pointed out in an interview with CNBC that the company's goal is to allow users to manage digital assets, trade derivatives and place bets on real-world events on the same platform.
Regulatory game and jurisdiction battle
The application comes at a time when competition for federally regulated event transactions is heating up. According to CNBC, Blockchain.com is one of 12 companies applying for DCM licenses this year, while the CFTC has approved six new agencies in 2026. Part of the appeal of choosing the federal regulatory path lies in jurisdictional issues: Holding a CFTC license protects companies from state gambling regulators, which have previously been sued by predictive market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
The current regulatory environment is changing rapidly, with state and federal regulators fighting fiercely in court over who has the power to regulate such markets. Recently, the CFTC submitted new rules to the White House aimed at consolidating its regulatory authority over the forecasting market. At the same time, litigation over whether incident contracts are federally regulated swaps, particularly disputes involving agencies such as the NFL and Kalshi, has attracted the attention of the U.S. Supreme Court.
Market size explodes
Despite the complex regulatory outlook, the appeal of the forecast market to Blockchain.com and other participants is clear: the industry is in a booming stage. As the forecasting market has become increasingly mainstream, transaction volume has increased significantly over the past year.
Analysts at Bernstein predict that the industry could generate billions of dollars in revenue by the end of the decade, and the overall market size is expected to reach $10 trillion.
