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Kalshi competes with NFL Supreme Court,$1.8 billion bet tied to a football Sunday

2026-10-10 04:12:26
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The NFL urges the Supreme Court to allow states to regulate Kalshi's sports contracts

The NFL has filed a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to allow states to regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, citing a Sunday when forecast market transactions related to its events reached $1.8 billion.

Core Points

The NFL has filed an amicus curiae brief in support of the New Jersey gaming regulator's complaint against Kalshi in the Supreme Court. The league pointed out that on Sunday, the first day of the season, total market transaction volume was forecast to be $3.3 billion, of which $1.8 billion was related to NFL events. Kalshi has until November 9 to respond, and the justices have not yet decided whether to accept the case.

NFL Supreme Court Brief

On Thursday, the NFL filed an amicus curiae brief in Flaherty v. Kalshi EX. The case was filed by New Jersey's gaming regulator, which lost to Kalshi in the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in April. The NFL points to a forecast total market transaction volume of $3.3 billion on the first Sunday of the season.

The NFL argued that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) refused to adopt the league's list of prohibited bets, many of which could be manipulated by a single player, coach or referee. In addition, the agency allows 18-year-olds to trade, while states typically require punters to be 21 years old. The briefing pointed out that the CFTC has only 543 employees and needs to cover the United States.

The league calls on the justices to act "before another NFL season begins."

Kalshi and CFTC's response

Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the company had repeatedly tried to work with the alliance to ensure market integrity, but received no response. She said all leagues except the NFL are willing to share data. The CFTC countered that it had communicated with the NFL about its rule-setting agenda since day one and believed it was regrettable that the league refused to sign the cooperation agreement.

Gambling lawyer Daniel Wallach posted on platform X that the brief "significantly increases the possibility of obtaining a cert grant," that is, the case will be submitted to the justices for review.

Gary Gensler, who led the CFTC when the Dodd-Frank Act came into effect, and former Senator Chris Dodd, the bill's sponsor, told the court that Congress never intended to transfer sports betting from states to the agency's jurisdiction.

Predicting judicial differences in market cases

The key to this case is whether sports event contracts are considered swap contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. If so, it will fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC and will not be subject to state gambling laws. On April 6 this year, the Third Circuit Court upheld Kalshi; but on August 28, the Ninth Circuit Court ruled that Kalshi lost the case, and on September 25, the Sixth Circuit Court made the same ruling. New Jersey has support from 39 states and Washington, D.C., and Kalshi has until November 9 to respond.

Long before Thursday's filing, the NFL had urged Kalshi and Polymarket in March to stop listing contracts related to individual game moves and player injuries. In May, the NFL submitted to the CFTC a list of contract types it wanted to be banned, including bets on missed shots at the goalpost and referee penalties; in July, the league told the agency that the proposed rules were still "grossly inadequate."

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