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BTC The U.S. labor market was unexpectedly weak, and expectations for the path of the federal funds rate shifted to
The U.S. labor market performed worse than everyone expected. In July, employers cut 23,000 jobs-the first net decrease since the epidemic recovered and well below the 95,000 new jobs economists had forecast. Unemployment fell slightly to 4.1%, but that was only because more people had withdrawn from the labor market entirely. New jobs in June were revised down from 57,000 to 20,000, and May's figure was almost halved.
The market interpreted this as the reason for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Treasury yields fell, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.5%, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch tool showed the possibility of a September rate hike fell to 40% from 55% the previous day.
Bitcoin: Technical aspects still need to be broken, macro benefits have not yet been realized
The Fed's dovish path usually poses a positive for risky assets and cryptocurrencies-but Bitcoin's chart shows that the market has not yet regained its trend. Bitcoin is currently trading at US$64,938, up 1.06%(+683 US $) during the session after a positive line closed near the intraday high. Prices are compressing below two key moving averages.
The trend line reveals the trend. Bitcoin hit a high of about $80,000 in mid-May, and then slipped to a July low of about $58,000 throughout the spring along a clear downward trend. The 50-day index moving average (the average price of the past 50 trading days) has fallen below the 200-day index moving average (the average price of the past 200 trading days), creating what traders call a "dead fork." When the short-term moving average is below the long-term moving average, the medium-term trend still points downward. Since the July low, the downtrend has leveled off and turned sideways, but prices have not yet returned to any moving averages.
The relative strength index is currently at 54.6. The indicator measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100: above 70 is oversold, and below 30 is oversold. 54.6 It means momentum neutrality-there is neither motivation for a breakthrough nor pressure to completely clear out.
From a technical perspective, a bullish situation requires prices to close the day back above the 50-day EMA and the resistance level at the US$66,000 integer mark, and then attack the 200-day EMA (approximately US$64,000) and the top of the cloud (approximately US$72,000). From a fundamental perspective, the Fed's dovish stance and the weakening of the US dollar provide logical support for this push. The bullish situation exists, but it is very weak: throughout the consolidation process, Bitcoin prices have never recovered their 50-day line.
BELOW Scenario: A break below $60,000 (bottom of the cloud and integer mark magnetic level) confirms that bears still control the structure and point to a July low of $58,000. A break below this level for the daily closing price will restart the spring downward trend.
In one forecast market, traders remain pessimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. Currently, market pricing shows that there is a nearly 65% probability that Bitcoin will fall back to $55,000 first before recovering to $84,000. These probabilities have changed little over the past week.
Right now,$65,000 is the key dividing line. If prices stabilize above the 50th EMA, July's shock consolidation looks like a bottom; if prices fall below $60,000, it looks more like a flag-shaped pattern of a downward relay.
The employment report provides Bitcoin with macro-level cover for gains, but the "dead fork" suggests that the market has not yet truly qualified for gains.
