Aster prices continue to be under pressure, AOS-2 triggers a new round of supply competition

Summary of Points

ASTER is still trapped below key resistance levels.

AOS-2 introduces an expensive four-year locking mechanism.

Repurchase directly depends on the level of platform activity.

September will usher in a greater supply test.

ASTER has never been able to recover its 50-day moving average.

On August 13, ASTER traded at approximately US$0.60, still below the 50-day simple moving average that has suppressed the token since June. In August 2026, prices hover near support levels near the lower Fibonacci track.

The last meaningful breakthrough occurred around June 17. ASTER briefly broke through its moving average but failed to hold on to its gains, and subsequent attempts were blocked in the area. However, prices have not fallen further, and have fluctuated within a narrower range for most of the time since late July.

The downward boundary has also become clearer. ASTER has twice fallen to around $0.58 and rebounded both times, establishing the region as the most recent low below current prices and the strongest visible support. The structure formed during the previous rally largely disappeared when the June high fell back, making $0.58 more meaningful than the short-term intraday level. Once lost, it may touch deeper into the previous range. If we can continue to stand above the 50-day moving average, it will change the upward trend after several weeks of failed rebound.

AOS-2 creates demand, but is costly

Aster released the framework for AOS-2 on July 28, expanding its open listing system to the perpetual contract market. Subsequently, the agreement officially implemented AOS-2 on August 11. If eligible projects seek to be listed on a perpetual contract, they must pledge 1 million ASTER units, lock them in for four years and cannot be withdrawn early. After the application is submitted, it needs to be voted by the online verifier before the approved market can be launched.

Based on ASTER's current prices, this means a commitment to lock in tokens worth approximately US$600,000 for a four-year period.

For ASTER holders, this mechanism has clear benefits: each successful application directly creates demand for tokens and removes those tokens from circulation over a longer period of time. However, the same requirements may also limit the widespread use of AOS-2. Committing to lock in hundreds of thousands of dollars for up to four years is quite costly, especially for small projects or teams that may have other options for listing with perpetual contracts. Only when enough projects believe that a listing opportunity is worth investing so much money can AOS-2 truly become a meaningful token consumption pool. Therefore, adoption rates are more important than the release itself. A small number of applications have a limited impact on supply, and wider use will gradually make this new standard a reliable source of long-term demand for ASTER.

Repurchase increases demand, but size may change rapidly

Aster's updated token economy model uses 99% of daily platform fees for automatic repurchase of ASTER. The repurchased tokens are distributed to veASTER pledgers, while the same amount of tokens is destroyed from reserves. The latest official data shows that between July 27 and August 10, a total of 2,851,653.28 ASTER units were purchased. The corresponding destruction was initially assigned by the team. Aster said the mechanism will continue until the total supply of tokens drops from the initial 8 billion to 3 billion.

This structure combines two effects: platform revenue creates open market purchases, while the corresponding destruction of reserves reduces supply elsewhere. But if you don't consider the size of the fee pool behind it, the 99% figure may seem stronger than it actually is. When trading activity and fee income increase, the repurchase scale expands; when activity slows, the repurchase scale shrinks. Therefore, repurchase is not a fixed source of demand. The latest data provides a certain scale of reference: if this rate is maintained, 2.85 million ASTER units will be purchased in about two weeks, equivalent to about 5.7 million units per month. This is particularly critical compared with the upcoming supply unlocking timetable in September.

September may test Aster's token consumption mechanism

Aster's official token economy model allocates 400 million ASTER to teams and consultants, accounting for 5% of the initial supply. The allocation has a full one-year lockup period, followed by a 40-month linear unlocking period. ASTER's TGE occurred on September 17, 2025, which means that the lockup period will end next month on the first anniversary of the token's listing. The entire allocation of 400 million pieces will not be turned into circulation at one time. Once unlocking begins, 400 million tokens will be evenly distributed over 40 months, and approximately 10 million ASTER will be unlocked each month. This is significantly higher than the recent repurchase rate. If Aster continues to repurchase tokens at the rate reported from July 27 to August 10, monthly repurchases will absorb approximately 5.7 million ASTER units, well below the approximately 10 million units it plans to unlock each month. This comparison is not entirely accurate. Repurchase fluctuates with platform revenue, while unlocking just makes tokens available and does not mean they will be automatically sold off. Still, September will change the balance. Until then, buybacks and long-term lockdowns have been removing or restricting supply, and the team unlock program has not fought against it. Starting next month, the market may also need to absorb newly unlocked tokens. If ASTER remains trapped in the current range, even if only a portion of the unlocked coins enter the market, it may have an impact. Given that $0.58 is already the closest established support level, additional selling pressure will put that level to a more severe test. Therefore, ASTER's next question is not just whether AOS-2 can be successfully launched or whether the repurchase can continue. It is whether these mechanisms can absorb enough supply after unlocking begins.