Gold price warning: Don't ignore the movements on this chart

The price of gold was reported at US$4390 and fluctuated sharply again today. Bulls are trying to recover ground from falling to a low of $4365. The price of gold is currently at a stalemate, with strong support below and resistance above. One party must make concessions quickly, and the direction of the breakthrough will determine the trend for some time to come.

Bulls successfully pushed gold prices back above $4380. But the $4395 to $4400 area? That's an insurmountable barrier. If the bulls can break through cleanly, we can expect to see $4410, or even touch $4420. However, if a breakthrough cannot be achieved, the price of gold is expected to fall back to around $4375. If this price falls,$4365 will be the key support that needs attention.

Gold prices have been consolidating since their latest rally. Therefore, please pay close attention to these key price points. The change node is coming soon.

This key gold price level may determine the next trend.

MCO Global Research Institute has identified US$4416 and US$4373 as two key levels that may determine the next trend of gold prices. The first is the resistance level above the market. A breakthrough of $4416 will provide room for bulls to expand their rebound. The second is the support level. A loss of $4373 would weaken the short-term structure and could open a channel for a decline to $4256.

#$XAUUSD$#Gold continues to climb, but momentum is weakening and divergence signals continue to accumulate. $4416 and $4373 are levels worthy of attention. Once lost,$4256 will become the real test. pic.twitter.com/GvhgE0Cl36 MCO Global (@moretradingonl) August 13, 2026

The chart confirms this warning. Gold prices have climbed rapidly from the $4000 region, but recent gains show weakening momentum. The analysis points out multiple deviations, which means that although prices are rising, momentum indicators have not strengthened simultaneously. This makes $4373 particularly important. Holding this level can maintain the recovery; falling below this level means $4256 is in sight.

The gold chart is warning traders what

The second weekly chart adds reasons to watch closely for the next breakout. Gold prices have been trading near the middle track of the Bollinger Band, also known as the baseline. In previous rallies, this line has served as an important support area. After gold broke through this line, the trend continued. The current trend is different. Gold prices are testing the benchmark from below after experiencing a sharp decline from its 2026 high of nearly $5400. The chart shows that prices are recovering from the $4000 region, but the middle track of the Bollinger Band is currently posing resistance. Continuing to break the weekly benchmark will strengthen the bullish case. If this position cannot be recovered, the broader correction trend will continue.

pic.twitter.com/w95v2ba01g - Sqeaky Mouse (@ TheSqeaky Mouse) August 12, 2026

Bullish and bearish scenarios: Where gold may go next

The starting point for the bullish scenario is for gold to break through US$4,395 - 4,400, and then break through US$4416. After breaking through these levels,$4420 will become the target, followed by the $4,433 - 4,435 region where the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the MCO global chart is located. A clean breakthrough in this area will provide stronger technical support for the bulls. The bearish scenario begins when gold cannot break through $4400 and falls below $4373. This will first expose $4365, followed by the deeper target of $4256 highlighted by MCO Global. The resistance of the weekly Bollinger Band will also persist.

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What could trigger the next major price fluctuation in gold?

What happens next may depend on U.S. economic data. Here are the figures to be released soon: Core retail sales are expected to be 0.2%, and previous values were-0.2%. Overall retail sales? It is expected to be 0.1%, which is 0.2% lower than the previous value. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index is expected to fall to 54.7 from 55.2. But inflation data may be more important. The core producer price index is expected to be 0.3%, which is 0.2% higher than the previous value. The overall producer price index was 0.2%, up from the previous value of minus 0.3%. Initial jobless claims are expected to be 202,000, up from 199,000 last week.

If inflation or consumer data performs strongly, it will push up U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields, which is bad for gold. If the data is weak, people will start betting that the Federal Reserve will relax monetary policy and gold may get a boost. In addition, the Federal Reserve's Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech, which could also trigger market volatility. Therefore, there are many factors worthy of attention.

Currently,$4416 above and $4373 below are key levels that gold needs to pay attention to. The first breakthrough will determine whether gold resumes its rise or moves towards $4256.

FAQs

What are the key resistance levels for gold prices? The main resistance level is $4416. Breaking through this level could open the door for gold prices to the $4420 and $4,433 - 4,435 Fibonacci areas.

What are the key support levels for gold? The key support level is US$4373. If gold falls below that level,$4365 will be the next price to watch, followed by a target of $4256.

What might drive gold's next move? U.S. inflation data, retail sales, consumer confidence, jobless claims and comments from Fed officials may all drive the next big trend. Strong economic and inflation data could put pressure on gold prices, while weak data could support gold prices.