Bitcoin price breaks through $80,000, and Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations cool

Bitcoin broke through the US$80,000 mark, trading volume hit a new high since August.

Bitcoin strongly broke through the US$80,000 mark on Wednesday, with an intraday gain of 3.5%. It hit a high of US$80,966 in Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair, and then stabilized around US$80,680. The rise coincided with a retreat in expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month and was accompanied by the pair's most significant surge in volume since August 25, the day the current consolidation range was formed.

Volume verifies the effectiveness of breakthrough

This breakthrough is in sharp contrast to the failed attempt on August 27. From August 27 to 28, the price tried to overcome the US$80,100 -80,600 range but was rejected and fell back to US$76,850 within one day. The pull-up at that time was accompanied by sparse trading volume, and breakthroughs based on low participation often reversed quickly after early buyers took profits. In contrast, Wednesday's K-line contained the largest volume column since August 25, indicating broader buying interest in the market rather than a single large order driving prices.

Moving average structure confirms bullish pattern

The exponential moving average (EMA) structure provides support for volume signals. As prices accelerated upwards, the 20-cycle EMA at $78,043 re-penetrated the 50-cycle EMA at $77,697. In the previous two weeks, prices have gained support around $76,900 twice (August 24 and September 3 respectively), holding the same bottom line, and this crossover is based on this solid foundation.

Resistance is currently in the $80,100-$80,966 range, which is also the area where prices are being tested. If the 4-hour closing price confirms to be firm above the range, it will open up space for prices to the US$82,000 -83,000 region, which does not show obvious resistance signs on the current chart. Support is at $76,900, which has been tested three times in the past two weeks; a 50-cycle EMA close to $77,700 will serve as secondary support if prices are corrected. If it falls below US$77,700, the US$76,900 support level will face another test.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations cool down

Kalshi platform data shows that the market's pricing of the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its September meeting has dropped to 41%. It is currently expected that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 56%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 41%. Initial jobless claims this week were 206,000, slightly higher than forecast. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he was open to keeping interest rates stable if August inflation data confirmed a continued de-inflationary trend. Bitcoin's rebound coincides with such repricing, although the correlation between the one-day Fed probability and the price of crypto assets is not enough in itself to say much.

RSI indicator shows potential risks

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the rate and magnitude of one-way price movement across the past 14 K-lines; readings above 70 indicate exceptionally strong buying pressure relative to recent history. Bitcoin's RSI(14) reached 71.80 in this movement, which is consistent with the level reached during the price rise on August 24-25 before the resistance reversed. The previous surge did not prevent a subsequent pullback in the rejection. Whether the RSI can remain above 60 during the downward correction, rather than slipping to a range of more than 40 points like it did after its peak on August 25, will explain more about the durability of the movement than breaking through the K-line itself.

Glassnode model shifts to "risk appetite"

Glassnode's Bitcoin Vector model turned "risk averse" after Bitcoin hit a high of $126,000 in mid-October 2025, and remained in this state until the 54% retracement period that bottomed out in the summer. As Bitcoin broke through $70,000 in late August, the model shifted back to "risk appetite," a shift that occurred before Wednesday's breakout rather than in response to it. Making two correct predictions in one cycle is a small sample size for assessing model reliability, but timing is crucial here: the signal shifts before the price changes.

The signal marking the top of $126,000 Bitcoin once again becomes "risk appetite." After the Bitcoin Vector signal turned risk-averse in October 2025, BTC fell 54%. As BTC broke through $70,000, it turned long again.

Trading outlook after the Federal Reserve's decision

If prices can hold above $80,600 during the retest and interest rate hike expectations continue to soften, the case for prices to move towards $82,000 -83,000 will be stronger ahead of the Fed's September meeting. If the 50-cycle EMA cannot be held, it indicates that the technical and macro signal directions are inconsistent rather than reinforcing each other.