XRP prices plummet 6% in a week: Is there a buying opportunity?

XRP Price Analysis: Technical, Macro Events and In-depth Interpretation of ETF Fund Flow

As of 08:25 UTC on September 11, the XRP trading price was $1.3525. It rose slightly by 0.27% during the day, but fell by 6.45% in the past seven days. This made XRP one of the top five worst performing mainstream currencies this week, with a decline even exceeding Bitcoin's 4.40%. The current market value is US$85.31 billion, the average daily trading volume reaches US$2.54 billion, and the year-to-date loss is as painful as 26.26%.

Looking at the chart further, one key data is worth noting: XRP is still down by about 63% since the cyclical high of $3.65 set in July 2025. August gave holders the best weekly return in the past year, and September is giving back those gains.

What are the reasons for the decline in XRP prices this week?

There are two main reasons, one is common to the market, and the other is unique to XRP.

The common reason is the Federal Reserve. Current market pricing shows that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike on September 16 is about 60%, which is a complete reversal of the expectation of keeping interest rates unchanged at the end of August. Strong August non-farm payrolls data (162,000), a historically high core PCE index, and rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict pushed up the yield curve. In addition, August CPI data will be released today. In this environment, high-beta assets are often the first to be sold off, and XRP is the high-beta asset.

The reason unique to XRP is the U.S. Senate. At 2:15 pm Eastern Time on September 15, the Senate will hold a cloture vote on the motion to advance the CLARITY Act (Clarification Act). This is not a vote to pass a bill, but a procedural vote to allow debate and requires at least 60 votes in support. Republicans hold 53 seats, which means at least seven Democrats must vote in favor across the party.

The market does not believe this will happen. Polymarket puts the probability of passing in 2026 at around 20%, while Galaxy Digital and the Solana Policy Institute both gave a probability of passing of around 10% before the midterm elections. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that if it fails now, market structure legislation could be delayed until 2030. Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti put it more bluntly, calling the bill "dead."

Part of the XRP's rebound in August stems from optimistic expectations about the CLARITY Act. The past three weeks look a lot like the process in which this optimism was repriced out.

What technical signals do the XRP chart show?

The 3-hour chart is clearly divided into three stages.

Phase 1: Vertical pull-up. XRP bottomed out at $0.9877 on August 17, then rose sharply by about 70% in three days, and surged to the $1.66 area on August 22. The green arrow on the chart marks the starting point from the $1.00 line. The K-line on August 22 left a long shadow line, which is a typical feature of running out of buying rather than finding value support. Subsequent leveraged liquidation quickly pulled the price back to $1.44.

Phase 2: Slow downward. Since August 23, the chart has shown a textbook-like sequence of "lower highs":$1.55, then $1.50, then $1.47,$1.46 on September 4, and $1.44 on September 9. Each rebound encounters selling pressure earlier than the previous one. This is typical distribution (shipments), not accumulation.

Phase 3: Critical testing. The blue line represents the 200-cycle exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.34052. XRP is currently only 0.9% above that moving average, the first real test since the August breakthrough. The current 3-hour K-line fluctuation range is only about 1 cent, with an opening price of $1.34866, a high price of $1.35933, and a low price of $1.34772. Such tight compression occurs directly near the main moving average and will not last long.

Momentum indicator. The 14-cycle Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading was 34.90 and its signal line was 35.39. The RSI fell to around 25 overnight, was in a severely oversold state and rebounded. But it is still below the signal line, so cross-confirmation has not yet occurred. Oversold in a downward trend is not in itself a buy signal, it is just a reason for a pause in decline.

Which XRP support levels are critical now?

This is where the chart becomes really interesting because three different factors converge in almost the same area:

Looking back at the August gain from $0.9877 to $1.66, the 50% retracement level of that rally is at $1.324. The $1.30 line drawn on the chart is slightly below this position. The 200 EMA at $1.34052 is slightly above this position. As a result, the $1.30 to $1.34 area constitutes a triple resonance of the moving average, integer mark and Fibonacci retracement level. Analysts tracking the token also marked the $1.31 to $1.35 range as the main support cluster.

Below this, the support ladder is as follows:

• $1.2445: 61.8% retracement level, the so-called "golden pocket."
  
• $1.20: Horizontal support drawn on the chart.
  
• $1.00: Break through the basics and psychological defenses.
  
• $0.9049: is below the August cyclical low and will only be considered in the event of a full-blown market meltdown.

Next XRP price target forecast

Bear scenario: If the 3-hour close falls below $1.34052, the resonance zone between $1.30 and $1.324 will take effect immediately. If the zone is lost at the daily close, it means that the August rally has been retracted by more than half, and the next real target will be $1.2445, then $1.20. The trigger for this path was today's strong CPI data and the failed vote to close the debate on Monday. In this case, falling to $1.20 before the end of September is realistic.

Baseline scenario: XRP holds on to $1.34, swings between $1.34 and $1.44 between the vote and the Fed's decision, and the sequence of lower highs remains intact without collapsing. Given that the two binary events occurred four and five days later respectively, this is the path with the highest probability in the short term.

Bullish scenario: Recovering $1.40 in the 3-hour closing price is the first condition. That would open up $1.4650 (a September 4 high) and the $1.50 to $1.55 range that has suppressed every attempt since late August. Only when the closing price is above the August surge high of $1.66 can the structural reversal from a "lower high" to a "higher high" be truly established, when the $1.80 area will become the next target.

XRP needs two things to work well at the same time to break the downward trend: a moderate CPI data and an unexpected passage of the closing debate vote; and only one thing needs to go wrong to continue falling. The chart itself is neutral, but the event calendar is not.

Is this a buying opportunity?

Judging from the chart alone, it's not. Buying here means entering a full sequence of lower highs with two binary events unresolved. The level at which a trend reversal is actually confirmed is $1.66, not $1.35. The setting will be more attractive in two specific situations: one is to hold a recovery of $1.40 at the close of the daily line; the other is to fall to the range of $1.24 to $1.30 and produce a clear rejection K-line. Neither of these situations has occurred so far.

Why didn't the inflow of funds to XRP ETF boost prices?

This is the most interesting divergence in the market right now.

The U.S. spot XRP ETF absorbed US$110.49 million in the week ended August 28, setting a record for the strongest week in 2026. Cumulative inflows are approximately US$1.66 billion. However, prices fell all the way during this period.

There are two explanations. First, the flow of funds has slowed sharply: it was only $18.96 million for the week ending September 4, and it was only $1.55 million on September 8. Institutional buy-in still exists, but has weakened significantly.

The second, and more structural reason is the escrow account (Escrow). Ripple releases 1 billion XRPs from escrow accounts every month and re-administers 600 to 800 million of them, which means 200 to 400 million XRPs enter circulation every month. At current prices, monthly new supply is about $270 million to $540 million, compared with the ETF portfolio absorbing only $18.96 million in the week it most recently measured. Demand side speeds must be several times faster than currently to offset circulation.

This gap is an honest answer to why good ETF headlines never drive prices.

What should XRP traders focus on next?

There are three dates in order of importance to XRP:

1. August CPI data, September 11.
   Decide whether XRP should test $1.34 from above or below before entering the weekend.
2. Closing debate vote on the CLARITY Act, September 15 at 2:15 pm Eastern Time.
   The largest XRP-specific catalyst this quarter. Failure is the benchmark situation, so passing will be an upside surprise, and vice versa.
3. Federal Reserve Decision, September 16.
   Interest rate hikes have been priced. Keeping rates unchanged will be the real shock and the strongest broad market catalyst this month.

Before these clear events become clear,$1.34 and $1.40 are the only two numbers to focus on.