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Following
BTC Bitcoin pulls back to approximately US$76,930, Coinbase CEO maintains long-term bullish expectations
With Bitcoin prices falling back to approximately US$76,930, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said his long-term outlook for this leading cryptocurrency has not changed. Armstrong believes that reaching $400,000 in Bitcoin by 2030 is a reasonable goal. Achieving this goal requires a current price increase of approximately 420%.
In addition, Armstrong's optimism is not based solely on price forecasts. Coinbase's CEO also highlighted Bitcoin's past market cycles and the upcoming halving process. However, there is also an important indicator in the market that runs counter to this: capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are beginning to weaken.
Does Armstrong think Bitcoin has hit bottom?
Armstrong pointed out in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin follows a market cycle of approximately four years. He noted that during these cycles, markets experience periods of upswing, over-optimism and subsequent downturns. He believes the current correction has been going on for about a year.
"I personally believe that Bitcoin was discovered at the bottom of the previous cycle." Armstrong said.
Based on this view, the market may be preparing for a new round of rising cycles. Armstrong also pointed out that two future events are particularly important:
- The U.S. Senate plans to hold a final vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15.
- The next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place in 18 to 19 months.
Why is the CLARITY Act and halving important?
The halving mechanism has been closely associated with huge price fluctuations over the past few cycles by halving the Bitcoin mining reward. Analyst Jesse Myers also noticed a similar approach to the cycle.
Myers pointed out that after halving in 2012, the price of Bitcoin has increased by about 100 times; after 2016, it has increased by 30 times; and after 2020, it has increased by 8 times. He emphasized that before the halving in 2024, investors have already begun the trend of pricing in advance.
Myers said: "If the same pattern is repeated in this cycle, the next 1.6 years may be the strongest period for Bitcoin."
According to the analyst's forecast scenario, Bitcoin will rise about fourfold from a low of $58,000 to reach $232,000 before halving in 2028, and then double again to $464,000 in the second half of 2029. Such an increase would exceed Armstrong's $400,000 target.
Why did Bitcoin ETF flow out of funds?
Despite strong long-term expectations, the current market does not show the same intensity of spot demand. According to sources, the 90-day cumulative net trading volume in the spot market is neutral, and the futures market has played a greater role in the recent market rebound. This suggests that rising prices do not entirely mean strong spot buying behavior.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs also showed a similar situation. In the week ending September 4, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of US$986.9 million, achieving positive growth for three consecutive weeks. However, a net outflow of approximately $166.9 million this week puts this running record at risk of ending. This figure is consistent with a total outflow of $166.8 million recorded on September 8 and 9.
How much does Bitcoin need to rise to hit $400,000?
Armstrong's proposed $400,000 target requires Bitcoin to rise significantly by approximately 420% from its current price. Therefore, achieving this goal depends not only on the halving cycle, but also on the market restarting strong capital inflows.
In the next few days, the progress of the CLARITY Act, the price trend of Bitcoin and the flow of funds in ETFs will receive common attention. Although Armstrong believes the rising cycle has begun again, the flow of money in the market has not yet fully confirmed this view. The primary test on Bitcoin's path to $400,000 will be whether existing demand can be re-strengthened before long-term expectations materialize.
This content is based on general market data and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research.
