XRP faces three major adjustments before the signal

XRP prices rebounded by nearly 70%, echoing historical bearish signals, breaking through key resistance levels or reversing the situation

Before the week-level Super Trend indicator turned green on August 17, the price of cryptocurrency XRP rose by nearly 70%. Although this signal is still regarded as a positive sign for now, looking back at history, the indicator's three previous occurrences have been accompanied by corrections ranging from 32% to 56%.

Market Overview and Key Technical Points

XRP has rebounded strongly from a low level close to US$0.98 to around US$1.70, but has not been able to maintain its gains and the trading price hovers around US$1.38. XRP is currently trading between two main technical thresholds: lower support is in the $1.29 -1.30 range, and upper resistance is around $1.52.

Analysts pointed out that an effective breakthrough of the key US$1.90 barrier will help weaken long-standing bearish expectations. At the same time, the XRP spot ETF continues to attract capital injections despite a slowdown in capital inflows.

Repeats historical bearish signals: Data comparison and warnings

Since the rebound from a low of US$0.98, XRP once hit US$1.70, but eventually fell back. Currently, Ripple's token prices fluctuate between two important moving averages: the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) is at $1.29 -1.30, while the 50-week EMA constitutes resistance around $1.52. This means that there is very limited room for price distances to test any key threshold.

Historical data presented by analyst ChartNerd showed three similar precedents:

• 2019: During the bear market, the supertrend indicator turned green, followed by a 56% correction;
• After the bottom of the 2020 cycle: A new bullish signal appears, but is closely followed by a 32% retracement;
• 2022:XRP rebounded by about 90% before hitting the 50-week EMA, and then fell by 45%.

ChartNerd explains: "Bullish supertrends often mark local tops." But he also stressed that these precedents do not guarantee that they will fall again. Three observations alone are not enough to establish reliable statistical laws. In addition, it must be analyzed in context: supertrend indicators follow the direction of the market based on past prices and volatility, so they often send confirmation signals after the rally has begun, rather than directly triggering subsequent reversals.

Key breakthrough path: You need to pass 1.52 first and then attack 1.90.

ChartNerd described the current situation as a "compression stage." "As long as prices remain below the 50-week moving average and above the 20-week moving average, we are just in the process of compression," he said.

Starting at $1.38, the XRP would need to rise nearly 10% to hit the 50-week EMA of $1.52; a decline to $1.30 would represent a retracement of about 6%. These two thresholds define areas that require focus in the near term.

A breakthrough of $1.52 may not be enough to completely overturn the cautious bearish scenario. Analysts believe the real structural change is happening around $1.90. XRP needs to rise about 38% from $1.38 to get close to this level. If weekly closing prices stabilize above the US$1.50 to US$1.90 range, it will increase the probability of returning to previous highs. Without such confirmation, a brief breakthrough in the 50-week EMA would only prolong the market's hesitation period.

Macroscopic Environment and Capital Flow Analysis

The overall market environment has not yet helped XRP get rid of the current consolidation pattern. The token has dropped nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, but has gained 1.5% in the past seven days. Despite this, its price is still more than 53% below its level a year ago and 62% below its all-time high of $3.65 set in July 2025.

XRP's recent trend has largely followed Bitcoin, with it fluctuating between US$77,600 and US$80,000. This correlation weakens the influence of XRP's independent technical signals. If the crypto market falls again, it may accelerate the retreat towards the 20-week EMA.

However, derivatives activity has warmed up. In August, XRP futures trading volume on the three major platforms exceeded US$64 billion, the best performance in six months. This growth indicates renewed interest, but may also amplify price fluctuations if positions are highly leveraged.

In terms of institutional funds, the XRP Spot ETF continues to attract capital. After net inflows exceeded US$110 million last week, the rate of capital inflows this week slowed to less than US$19 million, and the cumulative amount has been approximately US$13.83 million since the beginning of the week.

Taken together, XRP is caught in a game between positive institutional capital inflows and recurring technical warnings. If it falls below US$1.29, the correction risk will intensify; conversely, if it can effectively break through US$1.90, the pessimistic analogy with previous cycles will be significantly weakened.