Bitcoin is asleep, while privacy coins Zcash and Monero are awakening

The crypto market is consolidating, and privacy coins perform well

After Bitcoin occupied headlines for several weeks and climbed the list, the top of the crypto market is currently almost stagnant. Bitcoin traded at US$86,264.06, up 0.59% in 24 hours. The price of Ethereum was US$2,714.39, up only slightly by 0.34%. According to CoinGecko's data, the total market value was slightly above US$3 trillion, and the trend for the day was basically flat. The rest of the top 12 currencies by market capitalisation also showed similar volatility: Solana rose 1.4%, XRP rose 1.07%, while BNB fell 0.41%, and Tron fell 0.22%.

Most mainstream currencies are moving steadily, but privacy coins are emerging. As one of the most well-known privacy coins, Zcash (ZEC) has performed strongly over the past year, rising 3% today, recovering from a recent high near $1,600. Meanwhile, Monero has gained 2.14% to $562.32 in the past 24 hours, making it the day's standout target.

The daily chart reveals the different trends of the two. Zcash has risen 2.62% on Binance since the candlestick opened today, indicating that its gains are continuing. Monero, on the other hand, continued its surge that started yesterday and maintained strong momentum in the past 24 hours.

Macro factors dominate market sentiment

There are deep-seated reasons behind the overall sideways trend in the crypto market. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, the first rate hike since July 2023. The September employment report released subsequently showed that only 29,000 new jobs were created, far below economists 'expectations of 84,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%.

CME FedWatch data shows that the weak jobs report reduces the probability of an October rate hike to about 22%. For risky assets, it is a good sign that interest rates will not rise further. Therefore, the impact of the September interest rate hike and the decline in the probability of subsequent interest rate hikes offset each other, causing the overall market to show a sideways position.

Bitcoin maintains bullish momentum, with a golden cross on the technical side

Although the market is generally calm, Bitcoin still shows bullish momentum. Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced its second "golden cross", when its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed the 200-day exponential moving average. Prices are still below the resistance level of $87,354. However, even the most protracted bull markets require time to recuperate and digest.

Zcash: A one-day rise is not a trend reversal

It should be emphasized that Zcash's one-day rise does not represent a trend reversal. ZEC is still about 19% below its end-September high of $1,698, and a day of buying cannot fill the gap. Previously, Zcash fell to $1,333.50 on October 1 due to a loss of $30.25 million from the Grayscale Zcash ETF. Even with this outflow, the fund's cumulative net inflow since its establishment on August 25 is approximately US$268 million.

Looking at the extended cycle, Zcash has an independent development story. In the past 12 months, the currency has risen by about 2,500% and has not yet shown signs of a serious trend reversal. The latest wave of market movements surged from a base price of $480.72 to a high of $1,698 at the end of September, an increase of 253%. This process was accompanied by two major events: the launch of the Grayscale Zcash ETF on August 25, and token holders 'decision on September 17, with a 98.9% vote, to retain a bitcoin-like halving mechanism (to control inflation).

For Zcash, cooling pullbacks are not uncommon. Earlier this year, ZEC plunged 38% due to the Ironwood fake panic, and then regained ground and exceeded $1,600. In contrast, the current decline of about 19% from its September high seems more moderate.

Monero: In overbought territory, with limited movement

Monero is in a similar situation. XMR is trading about 11% below its September high of $632.86. Its market value is US$10.57 billion, less than half of Zcash's market value of US$23.18 billion. Based on daily chart analysis, both privacy coins are in the consolidation stage rather than breakthrough stage. On Zcash's daily chart, the price was quoted at $1,372.69, limited below a resistance zone of $1,403.89 (which is based on measurements from a low of $451.75 to a high of $1,698). Today's high of US$1,385 failed to reach that resistance. The next key mark below is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, or $1,221.93.

Another fast indicator views Monero differently, believing it to have entered deeply overbought territory, but showing a restricted trend in horizontal trading since late September.

Short-term key observation points

The following are key levels to pay attention to in the short term: Bitcoin needs to exceed US$87,354;Zcash faces resistance above US$1,403.89; Monero needs to hold support above US$558.69.