比特币现金仅反弹16%，比特币反弹88%：决定性的关键水平

比特币现金（BCH）周四收于273.80美元：跌幅16%，而比特币已收复88%

本周四，比特币现金（Bitcoin Cash, BCH）价格为273.80美元，较24小时前下跌7.3%。在同一时间段内，比特币价格上涨了0.6%。两者均于10月8日晚间出现跌破，但仅有一种资产实现了反弹：比特币已收复跌幅的88%，而比特币现金仅收复16%。因此，持有BCH的人面临着一个与整体市场不同的问题，其答案更多取决于这种弱势是否具有超越单个交易日的持续性，而非单纯的价格波动。

本分析由cryptoticker.io于2026年10月9日基于比特币现金和比特币在三个交易场所的每日价格自行编译而成。我们考察了这两个价格对在十个交易日内的表现。

关键数据对比

比较始于10月8日。比特币现金在下跌前价格为300.20美元，跌至268.80美元，目前回升至273.80美元。比特币此前价格为83,323美元，跌至80,400美元，目前位于82,960美元。

若将起点与低点之间的距离视为完整跌幅，比特币已收复其中的88%，距离起始点仅差0.4%。比特币现金仅收复16%，仍落后8.8%。从低点计算，比特币比之前高出3.2%，而比特币现金高出1.9%。

This data was the most important discovery of the day. When the entire market participates in a decline, a decline in a single currency is not new. But when the entire market participates in a rebound and a certain currency fails to keep up, it constitutes a news event.

The spread between different trading venues has caused the daily decline in Bitcoin cash to range from 7.3% to 7.7%, depending on the price source referenced 24 hours ago. The highest price of the day was $295.50 and the lowest price was $268.80.

BTC/BCH exchange rate: changes since October 8

Bitcoin cash forked from Bitcoin in 2017 and has followed the main chain trend for many years, usually with greater fluctuations in both directions. The degree of divergence between the two assets, measured by the exchange rate ratio, is more intuitive than any dollar price.

Today, 1 Bitcoin can be exchanged for 303 Bitcoin cash. 24 hours ago, 1 Bitcoin could be exchanged for 279 Bitcoin cash. As a result, while Bitcoin itself rose, the exchange rate of BCH against BTC fell by 7.9%. For bitcoin-denominated holders, they gave up nearly 8% of their value on the day, and Bitcoin Cash itself did not change.

This ratio will also be a measure for the next few days. If Bitcoin Cash once again rises strongly beyond Bitcoin, this weakness will only be a one-day phenomenon. If the ratio remains below the October 8 level, it indicates that the market has repriced Bitcoin cash.

Lower support failed: areas below $293 disappeared, daily lows at $268.80

In our October 8 report on CME's launch of Bitcoin cash futures, we pointed out two key points: the upper resistance was US$319.62 and the lower support was an area below US$293. The price was US$294.93 at the time, slightly above the lower edge level.

The area fell completely on the same night, and did not reluctantly fall below. The price continued to reach US$268.80 and has not effectively exceeded US$283 since then. Compared with the level when our article was published, there is currently a 7.2% increase missing.

The upward path becomes longer. The monthly high in October and May was $321.90, and the current price is still 14.9% away from that high. The old downside support level of $293 has transformed into resistance: as long as prices are below that level, every rise is just a rebound in a downtrend, not a reversal.

Therefore, US$268.80 on October 8 is the key level. If you hold that position in the second test, the market will find a bottom; if you break below, there will be no historical support reference in the past four weeks until around the $250 area.

Bitcoin Cash itself has no triggers: no hacking, removal or protocol changes

For a single-day 7% decline, the first thing to do is look for news that explains this phenomenon. As of October 9, there was no relevant news on Bitcoin cash. There have been no reports of attacks on the network, no announcements from major trading platforms announcing the cessation of trading in BCH, and no protocol changes forcing holders to act.

This is an observation, not an explanation. Without its own clear triggers, there are two reasonable interpretations: one is that the holder made a lot of profits after a sharp rise on September 22 and chose to cash out when the market went down; the other is that the market is repricing October 19 expectations, which were included in the price in September.

Exactly which situation applies cannot be determined based on price data alone. The only observable thing is that while the rest of the markets experienced a rebound, the rebound in Bitcoin Cash was absent.

Funding rate 0.009%: The status of the perpetual contract market

Funding rate is the balanced payment that flows between buyers and sellers of perpetual contracts every eight hours. When the rate is positive, the party betting on the price increase pays a fee to the other party. Therefore, it shows which party has the higher cost of the position.

On Thursday, the funding rate for Bitcoin Cash was 0.009% per eight hours. This is slightly above zero and close to the settlement value under balanced positions. The premium of the contract to the spot price is zero.

This is a troubling signal for holders who want a quick counterattack: futures markets show no significant oversold downward deviations that need to be corrected. After declines triggered by over-leveraged selling, funding rates are often significantly negative because too many people are betting on further declines. However, the pressure here does not exist. Prices fell without overstretching on either side, so there was a lack of momentum to rebound based on technical necessity.

CME will launch contract on October 19: Approval still not completed

CME集团于9月22日宣布，将从10月19日起在其Globex平台上列出比特币现金期货合约，包括涵盖250枚BCH的标准合约和涵盖25枚BCH的小型合约。该公告从一开始就受到监管审查，截至10月8日的报道，该条件尚未获得批准。

对于德国的持有者来说，这一日期并不直接影响其投资组合。这些合约面向机构市场参与者；通过德国经纪商，零售投资者无法访问。该日期影响的是价格，而非你的持仓。

其影响范围也比9月份的价格运动所暗示的要有限。这些合约采用现金结算而非实物交割。购买此类合约并非购买比特币现金：在期限结束时，差额将以美元结算。因此，期货市场不会产生支持价格的现货需求。它产生的是在不拥有硬币的情况下押注价格下跌的能力，这对于此前无法通过受监管渠道这样做的市场参与者群体而言是一种新工具。

价差与流动性：薄市场中卖出所需付出的代价

按市值计算，比特币现金是前二十五大的加密资产之一，但处于该群体的较低部分。与比特币或以太坊的区别在卖出时显现出来，主要体现在两个方面：

1. 价差（Spread）：The difference between the price you can sell and the price you can buy. For smaller crypto assets, the gap is wider and widens further when prices fall.
2. Order Book Depth: is the amount you can sell before your selling behavior lowers the price.

This is why for a currency like Bitcoin Cash, comparing trading venues is more valuable than for Bitcoin. Bitcoin spreads are narrow almost everywhere, while BCH trading venues vary significantly. When selling in a downward-falling market, this difference determines a significant portion of the return. Before selling, please check whether your trading venue directly provides BCH to Euro order book, or only provides a transit route through U.S. dollar stablecoins, as that transit route will double the cost of spread.

Sell at a Loss: Processing of loss pools of crypto assets

Selling now means a loss at many entry prices. From a tax perspective, this is not a pure disadvantage, and the rules are different from stocks.

In Germany, crypto assets are considered other economic assets. Sales within one year after purchase are subject to tax, while sales after one year are tax-free. The holding period for this year applies in both directions: gains after one year are exempt from tax, but losses after one year can no longer be used as tax deductions.

Within a year, the situation was different. The realized losses arising from the sale can be offset against the gains from other similar sales within the same year, and the excess can be carried forward to other years. So anyone who realizes gains through short-term sales in 2026 can offset them with losses on Bitcoin cash. Which acquisitions are deemed sold depends on the order you record for your wallet, and this is where most cases fail. Tax tools with portfolio tracking carry this order, and without a clear allocation of acquisition dates, it is impossible to prove the existence of a loss pool to the tax office.

This article does not constitute tax advice. For large amounts of money, it is worthwhile to consult a professional who understands your specific situation.

Stop losses, limit orders, and slip points: Execution of sell orders in falling markets

There is an execution link between the decision to sell and the recording of funds, and in a market like October 8, this is by no means routine.

• Stop Loss: is not a price guarantee. It is an order that becomes a market order once a certain level is reached, and the market order accepts the price offered by the order book at that moment. If the price falls rapidly, the actual transaction price will be lower than the set level. This deviation is called a slip point. In the early morning of October 9, the slip point for smaller crypto assets was considerable as prices fell from $300 to $269 in a few hours.
• Limit Order: Reverses this relationship: it specifies prices and retains uncertainty about execution. At least you will not fall short of the limit price, but you may also not be able to close the deal at all. In a falling market, a selling limit above the market price hangs there and prices continue to fall.
• Leveraging products: operates differently. The focus is not on the price achieved, but on liquidation: once collateral is insufficient, the provider will close the position and the loss will be a foregone conclusion. Underlying assets fell 7.3%, and three-quarters of principal had been wiped out under ten-fold leverage. Anyone who wants to participate in this mechanism and its costs will find it the wrong route for holders who simply weigh the sell.

Our assessment: What the numbers reveal and what suspense they leave behind

In this editorial room, the absence of a rebound is a signal, not a one-day decline. There are two well-documented points to support this view: Bitcoin recovered 88% of its decline, while Bitcoin Cash recovered only 16%; and on the day Bitcoin rose, the exchange rate ratio fell 7.9%. A currency that failed to join the market rally is now being priced at a different price than last week.

However, the objection lies in the brevity of the time period. Twenty-four hours do not constitute a trend, and two-way fluctuations are the norm for a currency that rose 29% in a single day in September. In addition, near-zero funding rates also indicate that there is no accumulated pressure to force prices further down.

Therefore, we believe that the situation is unclear and the exchange rate of BCH to BTC will be a key indicator to determine the situation. This does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation, and there is a risk of zeroing the crypto-asset.

Bitcoin Cash: If it falls below $268.80, October 19 will become a footnote.

The CME date is the reason why Bitcoin Cash rose in September. If prices fail to hold on to the October 8 low, the market will completely clear this expectation and the date will only be used as a calendar entry and no longer have an impact on prices. There are three steps you can take to respond:

1. Settlement custody: If you hold cash. Holders who plan to survive the weak phase do not need to put the stack on their trading accounts. Autonomy excludes provider risks from computing; hardware wallet comparisons list devices that support BCH.
2. Record a loss: If you choose to sell. Record the acquisition date, quantity and price, otherwise the offset cannot be proved to the tax bureau in the future. Tax tools with portfolio tracking carry these details with them for each purchase.
3. Excludes leverage from the calculation: Underlying assets fell 7.3%, ten-fold leverage would erase three-quarters of principal, and liquidation occurred before any rebound. The capital fees and fees charged by futures venues have been listed in the Perpetual DEX Platform Comparison.

The next test point for this evaluation is the low of US$268.80 and the exchange rate ratio of 303 BCH to 1 Bitcoin.

（截至2026年10月9日。本文不构成投资建议。价格和费用结构会发生变化；购买前请与提供商核实条款。）