Ethereum price forecast: Is ETH quietly running out of selling?

Ethereum's breakthrough of $2,500 is blocked, offline data reveals deeper trends

Ethereum encountered resistance as it tried to decisively stand above $2,500, but amid price fluctuations, more dramatic changes are taking place. Currently, the number of ETH held on cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to approximately 14.88 million, setting a multi-year low. Since July 2025, approximately 6.4 million ETH pieces have left the exchange, while pledge activities continue to absorb a large amount of circulating supply.

At the same time, the U.S. Ethereum ETF recorded a new net inflow of US$216.4 million in a single day on September 11, bringing the cumulative net inflow to approximately US$13.38 billion. This capital flow constitutes a very different background for price forecasts than Bitcoin or Solana.

The core question at present is no longer just "whether ETH can break through the resistance level", but whether the impact of the next wave of demand will be amplified as the amount of ETH available for immediate sell-off gradually decreases.

Why the decline in exchange supply is critical

On September 14, after a slight correction before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision, Ethereum was trading at about $2,483. However, exchange reserves continue to decline. Although coins leaving the exchange do not automatically mean a price increase-because ETH may be transferred to private custody, pledge or institutional products for a variety of reasons-lower exchange balances reduce the supply of selling pressure that is immediately available when demand suddenly increases.

This is particularly important because it is reported that approximately 35.9% of ETH supply is currently pledged, further reducing the share available for immediate trading. We have previously discussed that Pledged ETFs are changing the investment logic of Ethereum by allowing institutional investors to combine ETH exposure with pledge income .

ETF buyers are back

Demand for Ethereum ETFs is also growing. Despite a mixed performance in early September, U.S. Ethereum funds attracted a net inflow of $216.4 million on September 11, of which BlackRock's ETHA fund contributed approximately $148.8 million. In the last seven trading days, net inflows totaled approximately US$316 million.

This continues the broader institutional demand trend tracked earlier this month, when the Ethereum ETF continued its buying momentum. If ETF demand accelerates and exchange supply continues to decline, ETH could face tighter markets than it did when it tried to break through higher prices.

Where is Ethereum going next?

Ethereum still needs to prove its strength from a technical perspective. Before peaking at around $2,564, Ethereum surged by about 37% in 10 days. Reuters recently identified a bullish flag structure with a technical indicator target of around $3,050, while warning that a break below the $2,350 - 2,360 range would weaken the bullish pattern.

This provides investors with a relatively clear path:

• Bear scenario (below $2,350): The recent breakout structure begins to lapse.
• Baseline scenario (US$2,400-US$2,600): consolidation continues.
• Bullish scenario (US$2,750 - 3,050): Supply tightening begins to support another round of gains.
• Breakout scenario (above $3,050): Attention turns to higher resistance levels in 2026.

Recent analysis of the Ethereum bullish flag has identified US$3,050 as the main technical target. What has changed is supply-side factors.

Can ETH finally exceed US$3,000?

The reasons for supporting the ETH breakthrough of US$3,000 are becoming more than just based on chart form. Ethereum currently combines declining exchange reserves, high pledge participation rates and renewed ETF purchasing power. These factors do not guarantee a rise in the market, especially when crude oil prices remain at around US$108, treasury yields are close to 5%, and market pricing shows that the Fed has a high probability of raising interest rates again.

However, they create an unusual market landscape. If ETH can stabilize above $2,350, recover $2,560, and net ETF inflows continue, the existing $3,050 target will become increasingly feasible. Conversely, if $2,350 is lost, the supply-side story may have to be shelved for a while.