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ETH Ethereum (ETH) is consolidating around $2,474, and it is still expected to exceed the $3,000 target
Ethereum (ETH) has fallen back after hitting an eight-month high of $2,660 and is currently consolidating around $2,474. At the same time, the shrinking exchange balance and the rising pledge level have once again focused the market's attention on the breakthrough target of US$3,000.
Key Points
- ETH has formed a convergent triangle, with buyers continuing to defend higher lows and sellers building resistance near the recent rebound highs.
- Once a breakthrough is achieved, the path to US$3,000 may be reopened.
- Exchange ETH balances have dropped to approximately 14.7 million, while approximately 43 million ETH (accounting for nearly 35% of total supply) remain locked in pledge.
Ethereum supply tends to tighten
After surging to US$2,660, ETH showed a correction and then remained around US$2,474. Buyers continue to defend a rising support line, a structure that compresses price fluctuations into a triangular pattern.
This pattern is similar to the triangle that previously triggered a 30.91% increase. It is worth noting that before the latest round of gains, whale holdings occurred almost simultaneously with the departure of more than $300 million of ETH from the exchange. Since then, exchange ETH balances have dropped to approximately 14.7 million from previous levels of more than 20 million, reducing the amount of ETH on the market that can be sold at any time. Pledge activities further tightened liquidity.
Currently, approximately 43 million ETH pieces are locked in pledge services, accounting for nearly 35% of the total supply. In addition, the spot Ethereum ETF has also transferred more tokens to regulated escrow accounts, and new coin issuance remains limited.
ETH kinetic energy test
In later snapshot data, ETH traded at approximately US$2,510, down approximately 5.6% from its high of US$2,660. Trading volumes on both buyers and sellers have slowed down, and the momentum for breakthroughs has been lost. Changes in supply pressure alone cannot confirm the arrival of a new round of gains.
If trading volume and open interest (Open Interest) rise, it indicates that new participants have entered the market; and a continued breakthrough is expected to return to the trend from US$2,650 to US$2,700, and then look towards US$3,000; if the support level falls, it may expose a lower space of US$2,380 to US$2,400.
The previous triangular shape broke through when the trading volume increased, and achieved a 30.91% increase in just three days. However, the current landscape does not yet show the same level of buyer engagement. This difference keeps the current breakthrough still unconfirmed.
