比特币的2035年淘金热：深入解析迈克尔·塞勒的收入押注

The Bitcoin Gold Rush before 2035: An in-depth analysis of Michael Siler's earnings strategy

In an interview with Binance, he said that he expects a "gold rush" for Bitcoin before 2035. He is betting that as Bitcoin issuance declines, the growth in demand through financial products will match it. The company he leads, Strategy, has sold preferred shares to investors seeking income. These securities provide a practical example of the size of the market that Siler expects to expand and the financing decisions needed to convert the heavy Bitcoin balance sheet into regular payments.

Core Points

• Thaler expects new demand to emerge as Bitcoin issuance slows.
• STRC investors own preferred shares issued by Strategy.
• Bitcoin appreciation alone cannot fund cash dividends.
• Stabilized value products require reliable reserve and redemption mechanisms.

Changes around 2035

Thaler chose 2035 as the time point because he expected that about 99% of the final supply of Bitcoin would be mined by then. The bitcoin awarded to miners is halved every 210,000 blocks, occurring approximately every four years, gradually reducing the inflow of new coins. The exact date depends on the speed at which blocks are found. "I think we're in a gold rush between now and 2035."

在该里程碑之后，现有的比特币仍将继续换手。基金、公司和个人仍可能出售其持有的比特币，因此采矿发行量的下降并不会决定进入市场的硬币数量。它只是减少了供应来源之一，而现有持有者的决策依然同样重要。要使这种供应减少支撑更高的价格，需求必须保持足够强劲，以吸收市场上提供的硬币。

比特币的文件描述了这种供需关系。塞勒预计，围绕比特币形成的不断扩大的金融市场将为买家带来超越直接价格敞口的需求。

为何塞勒瞄准收益型投资者

他的论点涵盖了ETF、财库公司、收益证券以及更广泛的以比特币为抵押的银行贷款。ETF允许投资者通过经纪账户持有价格敞口。抵押贷款可以让所有者在不卖出比特币的情况下获取现金，尽管申请贷款本身并不要求购买新的比特币。

Strategy采取了另一种方法，即围绕庞大的比特币储备发行证券。其资产负债表使公司能够向投资者提供对同一企业的不同权益主张，每种主张都有其自身的权利和风险敞口。对于寻求收益的人来说，该储备的规模与公司进行分配的能力同样重要。STRC是Strategy的优先股，这是塞勒试图吸引那些偏好定期支付而非直接承受比特币价格波动的投资者的尝试。

STRC持有人实际拥有什么

塞勒通过航空类比来解释预期的体验：“比特币就像战斗机，而像STRC这样的数字信贷就像客机。”这一比较反映了他提供稳定收入的雄心，但要理解这种证券，必须审视其背后的权利。

塞勒设想的產品比較。STRC承擔企業投資風險。

STRC持有人拥有Strategy的优先股权。公司的披露文件指出，其优先证券并未以其比特币持有任何抵押品。他们的优先权主张涉及适用条款下的剩余公司资产；这并不赋予持有人特定硬币的所有权，也不赋予他们对这些硬币的担保债权。庞大的比特币储备与有担保的投资是不同的概念。

STRC也没有规定的到期日，届时投资必须返还。希望退出的投资者通常依赖于以可用的市场价格出售。Strategy旨在鼓励围绕100美元的声明金额进行交易，但持有人在出售时可能会收到少于100美元的资金。只要他们保持投资状态，其收入就取决于公司的股息决策和资源。

Strategy如何为支付提供资金

Strategy raises capital by issuing securities and then determines how much money to allocate to Bitcoin, cash reserves or other uses, including share buybacks. Thaler expects its strong demand for preferred shares and common shares to help fund further Bitcoin accumulation.

The rise in Bitcoin prices increases the value of Strategy's positions, but does not create cash flow for dividends. Its underlying prospectus explains that generating cash from these positions relies on sales. It also identified dividends as one potential use of funds from securities issuance.

Assumes the issuance of US$1 billion of preferred stock at an annual dividend yield of 12% to illustrate this requirement. If the ratio continues and payments are announced, the issuer will need to prepare $120 million in cash within one year. No matter when Bitcoin appreciates, funds must be available to support payments when the allocation expires.

Strategy reported in a September 28 filing that it had established US$5.02 billion in USD reserves to support preferred stock dividends and debt interest, and an additional US$1 billion in USD cash. Between September 21 and September 27, it used $22.1 million in reserves to pay preferred stock dividends.

During the same period, the company used the proceeds from the sale of common shares to both purchase Bitcoin and repurchase STRC. Therefore, new capital can meet multiple needs simultaneously. The issuance of common shares brings in cash while spreading the ownership of existing shareholders over more shares, a trade-off behind expanding Bitcoin reserves.

What a 12% dividend tells investors

即使支付了分配款，股价的变化也会影响投资者的整体结果。在阅读塞勒与其他收益产品的比较时，这一点很重要，因为高股息率可能与股票本身的亏损并存。

他引用的比特币回报率描述的是特定过去时期的增值情况。优先股利率描述的是相对于声明金额的年度分配。这些数据衡量的是不同的结果。货币市场基金也持有不同的资产并遵循不同的规则，因此较高的报价率本身并不能证明这是一项更好的投资。

对于2026年10月，Strategy列出的STRC可变年化股息率为声明金额100美元的12%，每月支付两次。如果股票以高于或低于100美元的价格购买，相对于投资者购买价格的收入收益率会有所不同。未来的收入也可能发生变化：该比率每月审查一次，且现金股息不保证支付。

Strategy已提议改为每日支付股息，股东会议定于10月28日举行。如果获得批准并通过，股息将在每个日历日累计，并在下一个工作日支付。这将改变投资者接收分配的及时性，而不是单纯增加年度费率。

拟议的美元代币需要可靠的提款能力

Thaler hopes the revenue product will support another product: a wallet-held token designed to remain stable with the U.S. dollar while paying out revenue. He described a hypothetical bitco-linked product that provides yields of about 6-7%, suitable for users who do not want to hold direct exposure to bitcoin prices but want to spend or save.

Products that hold preferred shares require readily available cash or other liquid assets to meet withdrawal needs rather than relying on the immediate sale of those shares. Their allocation comes over time, while their market value and buyer availability may change. Users requesting dollars need a redemption process that takes into account this mismatch.

Provisions also need to clarify who owes payments to users and who absorbs losses when reserve assets fall. Withdrawal delays are particularly important for people who rely on the token for daily consumption. Reliable access to funding is as important to that user as the revenue rate in the ad.

Downturns will test broader models

If Bitcoin falls and investors are reluctant to buy Strategy securities, the company may face both weakening asset values and financing difficulties. Cash reserves can provide response time, but their importance depends on how long they can cover dividends, interest and other cash needs.

Future documents could make this assessment more specific by showing reserve coverage, new financing costs and how management allocates the resulting funds. Maintaining payments in difficult markets without exhausting cash buffers demonstrates the feasibility of Thaler's model more than simply increasing Bitcoin holdings.

By 2035, whether or not these products are successful, new Bitcoin issuances are expected to be even smaller. Siler's "gold rush" argument depends on their ability to attract investors and meet their needs in the subsequent market cycle. Continued demand, controllable financing costs and reliable payments will show that the financial markets he describes are becoming durable.