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According to data from data analysis website Predict Charts, Kalshi's 15-minute gold contract incurred approximately US$5 million in fees in September, involving a transaction volume of 542 million contracts. This achievement surpassed Ethereum's 318 million contracts and $2.6 million in fee revenue over the same period.
Why gold can tie up with Ethereum so quickly? The comparison is remarkable because gold's 15-minute contract was not launched until August 2026, which means that the category surpassed a mature crypto market in just one month.
The 15-minute forecast market allows traders to bet on whether asset prices will rise or fall over a short period of time, settling every 15 minutes, rather than settling at a single point in the future.
Bitcoin (BTC)'s 15-minute contract is still far ahead of gold and Ethereum (ETH). According to the same data source, Bitcoin incurred approximately $60.4 million in fees in September. This gap suggests that despite gold's faster growth curve, trading volumes for gold and Ethereum, as trading products on Kalshi, still lag far behind Bitcoin.
Why short-term contracts can incur disproportionately high costs
Kalshi 的费用结构奖励那些价格接近均势（即赔率接近 50/50）的合约。由于波动性较大的资产在 15 分钟窗口内的价格走势往往比长期合约更接近 50/50 的概率分布，因此这类合约更容易触发费用机制。对最近七天的单独分析显示，各类别的 15 分钟市场产生了 Kalshi 非体育类费用收入的 80%，而 Predict Charts 另将 15 分钟产品的占比定为非体育类总交易量的约 13%。这两个数据来自不同的衡量标准，但都指向同一个结论：短期格式相对于其活动份额而言，盈利能力不成比例地高。
这种动态有助于解释为何黄金 15 分钟合约的推出能迅速产生显著影响。对于黄金这样流动性强、交易频繁的资产，短时间窗口产生的定价经常接近“抛硬币”般的随机概率，这足以在总交易量追上像以太坊这样成熟品类之前，就生成可观的费用收入。
Kalshi 的商品业务拓展不仅限于 15 分钟格式。该公司另外表示，其更广泛的商品市场（包括黄金、白银和铂金）在七个月内累计交易量达到 4 亿美元，耗时约为加密市场达到同等规模的一半。该公司还申请推出黄金、白银和铂金的永续合约，并表示预计很快上线。
Predict Charts did not publish a detailed methodology on how to define "contracts" in this comparison, and Kalshi did not respond to providing a detailed breakdown by category in addition to the above summary data.
