BitMine will stop buying ETH when Ethereum hits $2500, as the 5% cap has been reached

BitMine will stop acquiring ETH when its holdings reach 5%.

At the Token2049 conference this week, BitMine Immersion Technologies Chairman Tom Lee announced that it will stop purchasing when the company holds Ethereum (ETH) reaching 5% of the total token supply. Lee described this threshold as a "hard upper limit." As of October 4, the company held 6,016,414 ETH units, approximately 4.9% of the total supply of 122.1 million ETH units used in its SEC filing. This means that as the largest enterprise-level ETH holder, BitMine is only weeks away from its target. Since launching the strategy on June 30, 2025, the company has made purchases every week.

The current market timing is a bit awkward: Ethereum fell about 5% on Wednesday, trading close to $2,566.88. Based on Lee's rough figure of about 100,000 ETH, the remaining gap is about 88,586 ETH (accurately calculated as 5% of 122.1 million, or 6.105 million, minus the 6,016,414 already held), worth approximately $227 million at Wednesday's prices. BitMine has $643 million in cash and marketable securities on hand, almost three times the amount needed.

Progress towards the 5% cap

• Target total: 6,105,000 ETH (5% of total supply)
• October 4 positions: 6,016,414 ETH
• Still to be purchased: 88,586 ETH
• Current cost estimates: Approximately US$227 million (based on unit price of US$2,566)
• Hand-held cash: US$643 million

每周的购买量已从5月18日当周的71,672枚ETH大幅缩减至7月20日当周的7,430枚，显示出明显的波动。上周，该公司以每枚2,726美元的参考价格添加了15,112枚ETH，价值约4,100万美元。按照这一速度，剩余 purchases 仅需不到六周即可完成；若按Lee的粗略数字计算，则需六到七周。这一时间表取决于每周的购买数据，而今年该数据几乎出现了十倍以上的波动。

7月份的放缓是刻意为之。BitMine当月将资金 diverted 用于回购其自身股份，平均价格为15.62美元，共回购了550万股。公司表示，在2026年40亿美元的授权额度下，目前已累计回购2,100万股。

为何持有500万枚质押ETH的公司要划定界限？

Lee并未详细说明具体理由，以下分析仅供参考，并非公司官方指导。随着每一次额外购买的进行，面临三大压力日益增长：

1. 集中度风险：一家上市公司已控制约五分之一的ETH供应量。
2. 验证者权重：BitMine已质押5,067,309枚ETH，占其金库资产的84%。以太坊的安全模型依赖于质押代币分散在众多独立运营商手中。
3. 流动性影响：被购买并随后质押的代币将退出可交易流通盘。

It should be noted that Ethereum does not operate based on token-weighted voting like many decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) do, so a 5% shareholding does not mean 5% control over agreement decisions.

How staking replaces accumulation as the main source of income

Stopping purchases does not mean the end of the strategy. In the quarter ended May 31, the pledge and verification business generated US$45.7 million of BitMine's total revenue of US$46.5 million, accounting for approximately 98%. It is expected that by September, based on a yield of 2.61% and the then ETH price, the company's annualized pledge revenue will be approximately US$330 million.

BitMine performs this operation through its self-developed Manufacturing in America Verification Network (MAVAN), which initially served its treasury and is now planned to make it available to institutional investors and custodians. Once the cap is reached, future growth will come from the business, share repurchases or smaller positions on the balance sheet: including 214 BTC, a $180 million investment in Beast Industries and a $117 million investment in Eightco (which BitMine describes as indirect exposure to OpenAI).

ETH tests key support areas since breakthrough in August

Since the breakthrough K-line in late August, Ethereum has been climbing on the rising channel. Wednesday's low of $2,552 fell right at the bottom of the channel, almost coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) running at $2,547. The slightly lower $2,500 level is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement from June lows of $1,505 to September highs of $2,807.

2,500美元区域具有历史意义：它曾在4月和5月限制ETH上涨，并在夏末盘整期充当转折点。日线收盘若能站稳该点位上方，通道结构将保持完整。

动能减弱：14日相对强弱指数（RSI）已降至44，跌破50中轴线，且远低于其自身的移动平均线61，表明买方失去了短期主动权。成交量温和：目前的交易量 resembles 平均交易日水平，并未出现伴随8月突破的剧烈 spikes。通常，突破重大支撑位的抛售会伴随更重的交易量。

ETH每日图表关键价位

• $2,807（阻力位）：9月高点
• $2,566（当前价格）：日内下跌4.85%
• $2,547（关键区）：50日SMA及通道底部
• $2,500（关键区）：0.236斐波那契回撤位，前期区间枢轴点
• $2,310（支撑位）：0.382斐波那契回撤位，若跌破则是首个目标位
• $2,157（支撑位）：0.5斐波那契回撤位
• $2,127（支撑位）：200日SMA，呈上升趋势

若在2,500美元下方出现日线收盘，ETH将脱离通道，从当前价格向下打开约10%的空间，指向2,310美元。守住该区域则将注意力重新转向通道中线附近的2,700美元，多头需要收复2,807美元这一关键水平。更大趋势尚未反转：50日SMA在8月底穿越200日SMA向上，且ETH较6月低点仍上涨约70%。

从需求端来看，市场失去了一位连续十五个月以上每周出现的买家。但这并不意味着价格必然下跌。BitMine近期每周4,100万美元的购买量相对于ETH的日均交易量而言很小，且公司持有的代币处于质押状态，而非等待出售。消失的是市场的可预测性。

此外，该上限本身并非固定的代币数量。今年早些时候，BitMine使用的供应量数据约为1.207亿枚ETH，意味着阈值接近603.5万枚。若按该数据计算，公司目前仅短缺约18,600枚ETH。随着供应量数据更新为1.221亿枚，门槛升至610.5万枚，且如果继续发行，该上限可能会移动，因此在BitMine首次达到上限后，可能仍允许少量额外购买。