Kalshi's 15-minute gold market trading volume nearly doubled...

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Kalshi黄金合约九月创收约500万美元，迅速超越以太坊市场

据预测图表（Predict Charts）数据显示，Kalshi推出的15分钟黄金合约在9月份产生了估计达500万美元的交易手续费，几乎是同等规模以太坊市场260万美元的两倍。这一数据表明，短期商品类产品正迅速成为该预测市场运营商非体育业务的重要组成部分。

在整个9月期间，黄金合约的成交量约为5.42亿份，而以太坊合约的成交量为3.18亿份。相比之下，比特币依然占据主导地位，其15分钟合约在9月份产生的估计手续费高达6040万美元。需要指出的是，上述数据是基于Kalshi交易记录估算得出的，而非公司官方公布的营收数据。尽管如此，这些数据充分证明，仅在8月推出的黄金产品，能够在短短几周内超越成熟的以太坊系列合约。

黄金为何能迅速超越以太坊？

Kalshi的黄金合约为交易者提供了二元头寸选择，即判断金属价格在每个15分钟窗口内是上涨还是下跌。这种结构允许资金在同一交易时段内被反复重新部署，而不是像传统合约那样将资金锁定在可能需要数天甚至数月才能结算的事件上。

The product is in a commodities segment that has expanded faster than Kalshi's early cryptocurrency business. Kalshi said in September that trading volume in its commodity market reached US$400 million in seven months, more than four times the trading volume in the crypto market at the same stage. Previous analysis has pointed out that Kalshi's commodity trading volume has exceeded the US$400 million mark as metals, energy and other financial contracts attract a large number of traders.

In addition, Kalshi has been building infrastructure to support these markets. Earlier this year, the company selected Pyth as a provider of analytical data for commodity contracts, including gold and oil, expanding its financial markets services beyond political, economic and sporting events into a wider range of areas.

Investor revelation

Gold overtook Ethereum in a matter of weeks, suggesting that Kalshi can shift short-term trading patterns across asset classes without having to rely entirely on cryptocurrencies. This expands the accessible financial market audience and reduces reliance on a single underlying asset.

Why can the 15-minute market generate such high fee income?

Short-term contracts are having a disproportionately important impact on Kalshi's fee portfolio. For the week ending October 5, the 15-minute period of encryption, commodity and financial markets generated an estimated $20.4 million in fees, accounting for approximately 80% of the platform's total non-sports fees for the same period. Although these products only account for about 13% of total transaction volume, they contribute about 20% of fees, indicating that their products are more effective in monetizing trading activity than a mere share of transaction volume.

This difference partly reflects Kalshi's probability-based fee structure. Contracts with trading prices close to equilibrium probability (i.e., 50/50) generally incur higher fees relative to trading volume; contracts priced close to extreme probability are relatively lower. Questions about Bitcoin, Ethereum, or gold going up and down in extremely short periods of time tend to be traded around the middle point, which makes repetitive 15-minute market fees extremely productive.

Investor Revelation

An important indicator is not just contract trading volume. The 15-minute market shows stronger fee generation capabilities per unit of activity, which means that even if the platform's overall transaction volume does not increase correspondingly, changes in product structure may have a substantial impact on Kalshi's revenue.

Is Kalshi transforming into more financial trading venues?

Gold's growth closely followed the early acceleration of the short-term crypto market. The number of 15-minute contracts for Ethereum surged from approximately 6.1 million in January to 233 million in July and reached 318 million in September. As of July, the Bitcoin version of contracts had become Kalshi's largest single market series apart from cross-border bets. Previous reports have shown that Kalshi's crypto event contract activity has surged in 2026, providing an initial demonstration of how quickly frequently settled financial products can achieve scale.

如今，商品市场正以更快的初始速度遵循相同的模式。这一趋势支持了一个更广泛的行业观点，即预测市场可以从选举和体育扩展到金融资产。近期有机构预测金融预测市场将在长期内大幅增长，随着短期合约增加资本周转率，加密货币、股票和商品可能成为推动预测市场交易量的主要动力。