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BTC Europol reports: Quantum computers cannot break blockchain, but beware of wallet risks.
Europol pointed out in a report released on Wednesday that quantum computers do not yet have the ability to crack blockchain technology. However, wallets that disclose public keys on the blockchain must transfer assets before they are attacked. The agency's European Cybercrime Center (EC3) said the wallets were "the main exposure point for quantum threats."
Potential risks and current situation
Currently, approximately 6.04 million Bitcoin (BTC) public keys are public. In blockchain networks, the public key is used to verify whether the wallet signed a transaction, while the private key is the key used to sign the transaction. The report points out that if a quantum computer is powerful enough, it may derive private keys from public public keys, thereby stealing and spending these cryptocurrencies.
However, the hash function that connects blocks and ensures mining security is still extremely difficult to crack. The report said that to crack a 256-bit hash value, it takes about 2^128 quantum operations, which "remains an astronomically high threshold" under foreseeable technical conditions.
Conclusion: Active adaptation rather than system collapse The final conclusion of the
report is: "Cryptocurrencies will not collapse due to quantum computing." The report emphasized that "proactive adaptation rather than systemic collapse is the most likely outcome."
There is currently no ready-made cryptographic repair solution for wallets that disclose public keys. "The only solution is preventive migration," the report states, in which owners move funds to new wallet addresses that are temporarily immune to attack.
As of May, online data showed that 6.04 million bitcoins (30.2% of the total supply) had public keys. Another estimate puts this number at close to 6.9 million bitcoins. This data includes early Pay-to-Public-Key outputs and long-unused coins since the Satoshi era.
Community Disagreements and Migration Challenges
There are different opinions within the Bitcoin community on whether funds from wallets from the Satoshi era should be frozen. According to a 2024 study cited, moving all unsigned Bitcoin transaction history to a format that quantum computers cannot read would require a total of at least 76 days of network-wide downtime. If only 25% of transactions were processed per block, the entire process could be extended by approximately 300 days.
In addition, post-quantum signatures standardized by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) are 10 to 120 times larger than the ECDSA signatures currently used in Bitcoin. The report pointed out that this may take up more block space, lead to increased fees and extend confirmation times.
Other Threats and Future Outlook
另一份名为《现在收集，稍后解密》的报告，是在西班牙马德里卡洛斯三世大学的协助下编写的。该报告探讨了攻击者存储加密数据以待日后破解的行为。尽管欧洲刑警组织尚未发现该方法被大规模使用的有力证据，但政府方面表示，长期保密的高价值信息最可能成为此类攻击的目标。
此前有报道称，欧盟委员会希望成员国在2026年底前开始转向不使用量子计算的体系，并在2030年前将高风险系统迁移至使用量子计算的体系。
以太坊的后量子基础设施核心预计将于2029年推出，而比特币开发者正在研究BIP-360软分叉方案。另有消息指出，今年9月，超过100名利用AI编码器的研究人员成功将单次针对比特币的量子攻击所需资源减少了86.1%。然而，能够执行此类攻击的机器目前尚不存在，欧洲刑警组织也未说明其何时会出现。
